2026 Home Run Derby Predictions: Schwarber Favored, Full Odds

Kyle Schwarber enters the 2026 Home Run Derby as the plus-310 favorite on DraftKings, and he does it in his own ballpark. The Phillies slugger leads the majors with 32 home runs and headlines an eight-man field that swings tonight, Monday, July 13, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (8 p.m. ET, live on Netflix). With two Phillies in the bracket and a brand new format, the home crowd has plenty to shout about.

Here is the full field, the odds as of Monday, and where the betting value sits before first pitch.

The Field and the Odds

DraftKings posted the full board Monday morning. Schwarber sits clear at the top, with Rays third baseman Junior Caminero right behind him.

1. Kyle Schwarber (Phillies), plus-310 2. Junior Caminero (Rays), plus-425 3. Munetaka Murakami (White Sox), plus-500 4. Jac Caglianone (Royals), plus-700 5. Bryce Harper (Phillies), plus-700 6. Jordan Walker (Cardinals), plus-800 7. Ben Rice (Yankees), plus-850 8. Willson Contreras, plus-1400

Two names carry the marquee. Schwarber swings at home and leads the sport in homers. Caminero, the first player to commit this year, has unfinished business after a 45-homer 2025 season and a runner-up finish to Cal Raleigh at last year's Derby in Atlanta. A win tonight would make him the youngest champion in Derby history at 23 years and eight days, edging Juan Gonzalez's 1993 mark.

What the New Format Changes

The 2026 Derby scraps the timed rounds that defined the event for years. Instead, each hitter gets a set number of swings per round. That is a meaningful shift for how you handicap this. Timed formats reward pace and stamina, which favored younger hitters who could rapid-fire for three minutes. A fixed-swing format puts the premium back on efficiency and raw power per cut, which helps veterans like Schwarber and Harper who do not need to sprint through a round to rack up a number.

It also tightens the variance. Fewer wasted swings means the biggest raw power in the field, not the best-conditioned hitter, tends to advance.

Betting and DFS Impact

Schwarber at plus-310 is the chalk for a reason: home park, tournament-best power, and a format that rewards controlled bombs. The counter is that favorites historically struggle in this event because a single bad matchup ends your night, so the number is more about respect than a lock.

Caminero at plus-425 is the sharpest secondary look. He nearly won it a year ago, he owns some of the loudest exit velocities in the sport, and the youngest-champion storyline is live. Murakami at plus-500 is the pure-power dart, a left-handed swing built for a park that plays fair to short right field. For a longer price, Bryce Harper at plus-700 gets the same home-crowd lift as Schwarber and is underpriced relative to the two Phillies splitting local energy.

For DFS and matchup props, the bracket seeding matters more than usual under the new format. Target hitters with a favorable first-round draw and fade anyone forced to peak early against a top seed. First-round upsets are where the biggest Derby payouts live.

What to Watch Tonight

The bracket reveal and seeding are the first tell, because the new swing-count format makes the first-round matchups decisive. Watch whether Schwarber and Harper land on opposite sides so both Phillies can ride the crowd deep, and watch Caminero's early exit velocities as the signal for whether the youngest-champion run is on. First pitch of round one is 8 p.m. ET on Netflix.

Chad AI tracks the full Derby bracket, participant odds and matchup props inside the app. Follow the reads on our MLB daily picks page, the AI sports picks hub and the Chad picks hub, and revisit our earlier Home Run Derby field and odds breakdown. The official participant list is on MLB.com.

FAQ

Who is favored to win the 2026 Home Run Derby? Kyle Schwarber is the favorite at plus-310 on DraftKings as of Monday, July 13. He leads MLB with 32 home runs and swings in his home ballpark at Citizens Bank Park.

When and where is the 2026 Home Run Derby? The Derby is tonight, Monday, July 13, at 8 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. It airs live on Netflix, with coverage beginning at 7 p.m. ET.

What is the new Home Run Derby format for 2026? The 2026 Derby replaces timed rounds with a set number of swings per hitter per round, rewarding efficiency and raw power over pace and stamina.

Who are the participants in the 2026 Home Run Derby? The eight-man field is Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero, Munetaka Murakami, Jac Caglianone, Jordan Walker, Ben Rice and Willson Contreras.

Could Junior Caminero set a record? Yes. A Caminero win would make him the youngest Home Run Derby champion ever at 23 years and eight days, passing Juan Gonzalez's 1993 record. He was the 2025 runner-up.

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