MLB Manager of the Year Odds 2026: Venable, Murphy Lead Boards

Will Venable is a -375 favorite for AL Manager of the Year and Pat Murphy is -425 in the NL, per BetMGM's board published Sept. 25. Those prices imply roughly 79% and 81% probabilities, and both managers now have the strongest argument the award recognizes: a team still playing in October.

BetMGM's own voting history note cuts straight to why the board looks this lopsided. Every Manager of the Year since 2012 has made the postseason, and as of this week, both favorites' teams have done exactly that.

MLB Manager of the Year Odds 2026: The Board

Venable's White Sox and Murphy's Brewers are the only two managers priced short of plus money in their respective races. Everyone else is a longshot or not yet on the board.

AL Manager of the Year, per BetMGM (Sept. 25):

| Manager | Team | Per BetMGM, Sept. 25 | |-|-|-| | Will Venable | White Sox | -375 | | Kevin Cash | Rays | +185 | | Stephen Vogt | Guardians | +2000 | | Chad Tracy | Red Sox | +3000 | | Aaron Boone | Yankees | +8000 | | Others (Hinch, Espada, Schumaker, Shelton, Wilson, Schneider, Albernaz, Kotsay, Quatraro, Suzuki) | n/a | Off the board |

NL Manager of the Year, per BetMGM (Sept. 25):

| Manager | Team | Per BetMGM, Sept. 25 | |-|-|-| | Pat Murphy | Brewers | -425 | | Walt Weiss | Braves | +400 | | Craig Stammen | Padres | +1400 | | Don Mattingly | Phillies | +1800 | | Torey Lovullo | Diamondbacks | +2500 | | Craig Counsell | Cubs | +5000 | | Dave Roberts | Dodgers | +6600 | | Others (McCullough, Marmol, Kelly, Butera, Francona, Vitello, Green, Schaeffer) | n/a | Off the board |

Implied probability runs 100 divided by (odds plus 100) for plus prices, and odds divided by (odds plus 100) for minus prices. Per BetMGM, Venable's -375 works out to about 78.9%, and Murphy's -425 is closer to 81%, both well clear of the rest of their fields.

Why the Favorites Are Priced This Way

Murphy's case is the simplest: Milwaukee clinched its fourth straight NL Central title with MLB's best regular-season record. Milwaukee's rotation, anchored by an MLB-best team ERA, is part of why the Brewers' case reads as more than just a counting-stat argument to voters.

Venable's case leans harder on the turnaround story the voting history rewards. Chicago reached the postseason by beating Houston in the AL Wild Card Series, and the White Sox are now in the ALDS against Cleveland. Per MLB.com, Venable made it clear Friday that they could be used in the first three games of this series, with off-days Sunday and Tuesday built in, a small window into the kind of in-season management voters tend to notice.

Kevin Cash's Rays at +185, per BetMGM, are the only other team inside shouting distance in either league, and that gap to Venable's -375 says the market thinks Chicago's story, a team further removed from recent contention making the bigger leap, carries more weight with voters than Tampa Bay's more typical deep playoff run.

Betting Impact: Where the Value Sits

Neither favorite offers a price worth betting outright at this point, not at -375 or -425 per BetMGM. The value, if there is any, sits in the secondary tier. Kevin Cash at +185, also per BetMGM, is priced like a real second option rather than a token number, which tracks with Tampa Bay's own playoff push. Walt Weiss at +400, per the same board, is the same shape in the NL: a division winner in Atlanta with a credible if longer-shot case.

The longer prices, Craig Stammen's Padres at +1400 and Don Mattingly's Phillies at +1800 per BetMGM, only cash if voters reward a Wild Card run over a division title, which the "every winner since 2012 made the playoffs" rule says is possible but has not been the recent pattern for the top of the board. A DFS or futures bettor shopping this market should treat the top two prices as locks-in-waiting rather than bets, and reserve actual stake size for the plus-money tier where the board still has real disagreement left to resolve. Torey Lovullo's Diamondbacks at +2500 and Craig Counsell's Cubs at +5000, both per BetMGM, round out the NL field at prices that only make sense as a token hedge, not a real position, given how lopsided the top of that market already is.

What to Watch Next

The award is a full-season vote, so the next real line movement comes once the Division Series round plays out. A deep October run from either the White Sox or Brewers only reinforces the current favorites rather than changing the argument, but an early exit from either club opens the door for Cash or Weiss to close the gap before ballots are even cast. For full-season playoff-race context, see StatSniper's MLB playoff odds tracker and the NL Cy Young odds board for how Milwaukee's rotation factors into its award case.

For nightly reads once the Division Series games tip off, see StatSniper's AI MLB predictions hub and the daily MLB picks page. Chad AI tracks award markets alongside live game picks inside the StatSniper app.

FAQ

Who is favored to win AL Manager of the Year in 2026? Per BetMGM as of Sept. 25, Will Venable of the White Sox is a -375 favorite, with Kevin Cash of the Rays next at +185.

Who is favored to win NL Manager of the Year in 2026? Per BetMGM as of Sept. 25, Pat Murphy of the Brewers is a -425 favorite, with Atlanta's Walt Weiss next at +400.

What criteria tend to decide Manager of the Year? Per BetMGM, every winner since 2012 has made the postseason, which is why both current favorites manage teams playing in October.

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