AP Top 25 Preseason 2026: Where the Poll and Market Split

Ohio State opened the 2026 season at No. 1 with 1,672 points and 40 of 69 first-place votes. Oregon took second on 1,597 points and 14 first-place votes. That is where the tidy part ends, because five different programs collected a first-place vote and the gap between No. 3 Georgia (1,513) and No. 4 Notre Dame (1,510) came to three points across 69 ballots.

For bettors, a three-point separation is not a ranking. It is noise. And the futures board does not agree with the voters about who belongs where.

What the AP Top 25 preseason poll actually says

Here is the top 10, with points and first-place votes as published in the full AP table:

1. Ohio State, 1,672 points (40 first-place votes) 2. Oregon, 1,597 (14) 3. Georgia, 1,513 4. Notre Dame, 1,510 (6) 5. Texas, 1,483 6. Indiana, 1,440 (8) 7. Miami, 1,379 (1) 8. Texas A&M, 1,131 9. Ole Miss, 1,102 10. Oklahoma, 1,047

The real structural break is between No. 7 and No. 8. Miami sits on 1,379 points, Texas A&M on 1,131. That 248-point cliff is the widest gap anywhere in the top 12 and it tells you the panel sees a seven-team tier, not a top four.

Below that, Alabama lands at No. 13, the first time the Crimson Tide have opened outside the AP top 10 since 2008, Nick Saban's second season in Tuscaloosa. BYU and USC tied for 14th on exactly 839 points apiece, so there is no No. 15 this year. Conference haul: nine SEC teams, eight Big Ten, four Big 12, three ACC. Notably, not one SEC team received a first-place vote. Clemson was the top vote-getter outside the rankings on 112 points after a 7-6 season, ending a streak of appearing in every preseason AP top 25 since 2011.

Where the poll and the market disagree

Take Texas. The Longhorns are AP No. 5 with zero first-place votes, yet they were +650 per BetMGM on Aug 10, tied with Notre Dame for the second-shortest price on the board. Voters put four teams ahead of Arch Manning's group. The market puts one.

Georgia is the mirror image. AP No. 3 on raw ballot placement, but zero first-place votes and +900 per BetMGM on Aug 10, sixth on that board behind Indiana and Oregon. Voters like the Bulldogs' floor. Bettors are pricing the ceiling, and those are different questions.

Then there is Alabama. The poll has them 13th, a genuine demotion. They were +1500 per BetMGM on Aug 10, tied with LSU and Texas A&M for eighth-shortest and ahead of AP No. 12 Texas Tech at +2200. When a book is shorter than the poll rank implies and the price has not moved off its opener, that is a market saying the voters are reacting to last season rather than this roster.

Miami is the loudest move of the offseason. The Hurricanes opened +2000 and were +1100 by Aug 10 per BetMGM, and the poll caught up by seating them seventh. Anyone who took the opener is already ahead of both the voters and the crowd.

Betting impact

Title prices per BetMGM, Aug 10: Ohio State +600 (opened +600), Texas +650 (+700), Notre Dame +650 (+700), Indiana +800 (+800), Oregon +800 (+700), Georgia +900 (+900), Miami +1100 (+2000). Oddschecker's market survey published Aug 17, the day the poll dropped, still showed Ohio State +600 on top with Notre Dame +650 behind it. Seven teams inside +1200 is a flat board, which means the value is not in the headline number.

It is in the qualification market. Notre Dame was -700 to make the College Football Playoff per BetMGM on Aug 10, with no other team shorter than -300. The Irish also carried 17.5% of championship tickets and 15.3% of handle, the largest share on the board, despite missing the playoff last season at 10-2. That is a crowded, expensive position built on schedule softness rather than on beating anyone. If you like Notre Dame, the honest version of that bet is the season win total, not a ticket paying 14 cents on the dollar.

The history argument cuts against the top line hard. Only two teams this century have started the AP poll at No. 1 and finished as national champion: USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017. Four preseason No. 1 teams have missed the playoff outright in the CFP era, Texas most recently in 2025. Indiana won it all last season from a preseason ranking of No. 20, and half of last preseason's ranked teams did not finish in the poll at all.

If you want that context applied to a specific number rather than a vibe, the same discipline we run on our NFL win totals breakdown transfers directly: price the schedule, not the brand. Our AI sports picks hub runs the same model against college football slates as they post.

What to watch next

Week 0 was 12 days out when the poll landed, and the openers matter more than usual because so many of these teams get graded immediately. Ohio State starts with Ball State, then visits Texas in Week 2, which is a top-five collision in the season's first fortnight and the fastest route to a poll reshuffle. Notre Dame opens against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. Oregon draws Boise State. LSU, 7-6 last year and now under Lane Kiffin, opens against Clemson, a game that reprices two teams at once.

Watch the Georgia and Notre Dame prices in particular. Three points separated them in the AP Top 25 preseason vote, but Georgia sat at +900 and Notre Dame at +650 per BetMGM's Aug 10 board, and Oddschecker's Aug 17 survey had the same 250-point spread. One of those two markets is wrong, and opening weekend starts sorting it out.

FAQ

Who is No. 1 in the 2026 preseason AP Top 25? Ohio State, with 1,672 points and 40 of 69 first-place votes. Oregon is second on 1,597 points and 14 first-place votes.

How many teams got first-place votes in the AP Top 25 preseason poll? Five. Ohio State 40, Oregon 14, Indiana 8, Notre Dame 6 and Miami 1. No SEC team received one.

Which conference has the most ranked teams in the 2026 preseason AP poll? The SEC, with nine of the 25 spots. The Big Ten has eight, the Big 12 four and the ACC three.

Who is the betting favorite to win the 2026 national championship? Ohio State at +600 per BetMGM on Aug 10, with Texas and Notre Dame both +650. Oddschecker's Aug 17 survey still had Ohio State +600 on top.

Does the preseason AP No. 1 usually win the title? No. Only USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017 have started at No. 1 and finished as champion this century, and defending champion Indiana opened last season ranked No. 20.

The full poll and the AP's own writeup are at apnews.com. If you want the poll cross-checked against live prices instead of read as gospel, ask Chad AI in the StatSniper app. Chad tracks where public ranking sentiment and the futures board diverge, which, as of this week, is most of the top five.

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