NFC North Odds 2026: Vikings +120 Lead, Bears +270 Lose Kmet

Minnesota is 5-0, Chicago is 5-2, and the NFC North division-winner board, per ESPN via DraftKings, has Vikings +120, Bears +270, Lions +380 and Packers +550. The Bears priced second after a Thursday night win that cost them tight end Cole Kmet for the rest of the season.

NFC North Odds 2026: The Full Board

Those prices come from the DraftKings division-winner feed, via ESPN, which we pulled on Friday, Oct. 23, around 7 p.m. ET. The feed carries no timestamp of its own, so treat the numbers as a Friday evening snapshot.

Converted to implied probability, Minnesota at +120 is 45.5%, Chicago at +270 is 27.0%, Detroit at +380 is 20.8% and Green Bay at +550 is 15.4%. Those four add up to 108.7%, which is the book's margin on the market. Take the vig out and the Vikings are closer to 42%.

The records frame the board. Minnesota is 5-0 with a +45 point differential and is 2-0 in the division, according to ESPN's standings. Chicago is 5-2 at +37 but 0-2 in the division. Green Bay is 4-2 at +2 and 1-1 in the division, and Detroit is 3-2 at +16 with no division games played yet.

Kmet Out for the Season

The Bears beat New England 30-24 on Thursday, but Kmet suffered a serious right knee injury with 5:46 left in the fourth quarter after catching an 8-yard pass from Caleb Williams. Coach Ben Johnson announced Friday that Kmet is done for 2026, and he has been placed on injured reserve. He had 10 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown in seven games, per ESPN.

It is a bigger loss to the structure than to the box score. ESPN notes the Bears run some of the highest rates of 12 and 13 personnel in the league, which means multiple tight ends on the field. Johnson said the plan does not change: "We trained all our tight ends to be able to do all the jobs. I don't see us really changing who we are or what we do as a result of that." Chicago will lean on Colston Loveland and rookie Sam Roush.

For the division price, the key number is 0-2. Chicago's two division games are both losses, which leaves less margin than the +270 suggests if the race comes down to a tiebreaker.

Sunday's Division Tests

Three of the four teams play on Sunday, Oct. 25, per ESPN's scoreboard with DraftKings lines:

Colts at Vikings, 1 p.m. ET: Minnesota is a 6.5-point favorite (-108) with a total of 41.5, per ESPN via DraftKings. The moneyline is Vikings -298, Colts +240. The line opened at Vikings -3, so it has moved 3.5 points toward Minnesota.

Packers at Lions, 4:25 p.m. ET: Detroit is a 3-point home favorite (-118), the total is 53.5, and the moneyline is Lions -180, Packers +150, per ESPN via DraftKings. The spread opened at Lions -1.5.

The Packers-Lions game is the only NFC North divisional matchup this weekend. A Detroit win moves the Lions to 4-2 and gives them their first division win, while a Green Bay win would put the Packers at 5-2 and 2-1 in the division.

Betting Impact

Minnesota is the favorite at +120 with a 5-0 record, and the 108.7% total means there is no free lunch on any side. At +120, a Vikings ticket needs Minnesota to win the division roughly 45% of the time to break even, and one early-season loss in the division would change that math fast.

The Bears at +270 are the more interesting question, because Kmet was lost in Thursday's win. If you think Kmet's absence costs Chicago a game or two in the division race, the price is a hold. If you think the offense is scheme-driven, as Johnson says, the 5-2 record is already the argument. Detroit at +380 is the only team that has not played a division game yet.

For props, Chicago will lean on Loveland and Roush at tight end. Our NFL daily picks page carries the full slate, and the AFC North odds piece covers another division market hit by a quarterback injury.

What to Watch Next

Watch Sunday's Packers-Lions result first, since it is the only head-to-head between two contenders, then the Vikings' margin over Indianapolis against the 6.5-point number. After that, check whether the Bears price has been updated since the Kmet news, since the feed carries no book timestamp. StatSniper's Chad AI inside the Chad app tracks these line moves daily, and our NFL MVP odds piece covers the quarterback side of the same race.

FAQ

Who is the favorite to win the NFC North in 2026? The Minnesota Vikings, at +120 per ESPN's DraftKings feed as of Friday, Oct. 23, with a 5-0 record. Chicago is next at +270, then Detroit at +380 and Green Bay at +550.

Is Cole Kmet out for the season? Yes. Bears coach Ben Johnson announced Friday that Kmet will miss the rest of 2026 after a serious right knee injury against the Patriots, and he was placed on injured reserve.

What are the NFC North standings right now? Minnesota 5-0, Chicago 5-2, Green Bay 4-2 and Detroit 3-2, per ESPN's standings.

When do the Packers play the Lions? Sunday, Oct. 25, at 4:25 p.m. ET in Detroit. The Lions are 3-point favorites, per ESPN via DraftKings.

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