2026 NHL Draft Preview: Toronto No. 1 on McKenna or Stenberg, Buffalo Holds Three First-Rounders

Round 1 of the 2026 NHL Draft opens at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Friday, June 26 at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN, ESPN+, Sportsnet and TVA Sports, with Rounds 2 through 7 on Saturday at 11:00 AM ET, per NHL.com. The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the clock at No. 1 after winning the lottery, choosing between Penn State winger Gavin McKenna and Swedish center Ivar Stenberg, per the NHL.com lottery recap.

Buffalo enters the night holding three of the first 20 selections, Nos. 4, 9 and 20, after Tuesday's Byram trade with Chicago added a top-five pick to the Sabres' war chest. The full first-round order is published on ESPN.

What Toronto Does at No. 1

Gavin McKenna is the consensus favorite to go first overall and finished his freshman year at Penn State with 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in 35 games, tied for fourth in NCAA scoring, per Penn State Athletics. McKenna set the program's freshman record for points and assists, won the Big Ten scoring title, and earned CCM/AHCA Second-Team All-American honors, per the Penn State announcement.

The case for Ivar Stenberg is real. Stenberg sits No. 1 on NHL Central Scouting's final ranking of International skaters and some draft boards have him at or above McKenna, per NHL.com. At 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, Stenberg projects as the cleaner center prospect with a higher defensive floor. McKenna projects as the elite offensive driver with the higher ceiling, the playmaking vision, and a 33-point run in the final 19 games after returning from the World Juniors, where Canada won bronze.

This is the kind of decision Brad Treliving and his staff have been pointing at all year. Toronto needs scoring at center. Stenberg fits the immediate hole. McKenna is the better pure talent. If the Leafs go McKenna, it likely means they project him to slide to the wing in the NHL while Stenberg becomes someone else's 2C.

Buffalo Holds Three First-Round Picks

The Sabres now hold Nos. 4, 9 and 20 after the Byram and Greenway trade with Chicago that closed on Tuesday. The 25-year-old Byram is coming off a career-high 42 points and 11 goals in 82 games last season, per TSN, and the package included defenseman Louis Crevier and the No. 45 pick going to Buffalo.

The defensive board after McKenna and Stenberg gets interesting fast. NHL.com identifies Chase Reid of Sault Ste. Marie and Carson Carels of Prince George as potential future No. 1 defensemen, with Keaton Verhoeff (North Dakota), Daxon Rudolph (Prince Albert) and Alberts Smits (Munich) all projected as top-pairing pieces, per the NHL.com mock. With Byram moved, Buffalo has the picks and the positional need to take a defenseman as early as No. 4.

The other order-of-operations wrinkle: San Jose holds No. 2 and No. 9 (via Florida via Ottawa), per ESPN. The Sharks have leverage to package a deal with any team trying to jump Buffalo for No. 4, which is the trade rumor most likely to surface Thursday into Friday morning.

Betting and Futures Impact

Buffalo's path off the rebuild gets shorter if the Sabres convert No. 4 and No. 9 into NHL-ready pieces in the next 18 months. The team is sitting at $21.299M in cap space after the Byram trade, enough to be a UFA market mover on July 1, and the draft capital lets Buffalo overpay on a short-term deal for a forward without mortgaging the next cycle.

Toronto's Stanley Cup price is the other futures angle worth watching. The 2026-27 Cup market reopens once the draft closes, and the McKenna-vs-Stenberg call gets baked into the Leafs' opening number. McKenna as a future Calder favorite is the cleanest derivative bet, especially if he winds up on Auston Matthews' wing.

Chicago's Cup price also moves. Adding Byram on a three-year deal with Greenway as a depth checking forward gives the Blackhawks a top-four left-shot defenseman and a path back toward respectability faster than picking another teenager at No. 4 would have, per Yahoo Sports' grade of the deal.

What to Watch Next

The Toronto pick comes first and sets the whole night. If it is McKenna, expect San Jose at No. 2 to take Stenberg without thinking twice. If it is Stenberg, McKenna falls to the Sharks and the rest of the lottery sees a chain reaction on defensemen. Watch the trade ticker through the afternoon Thursday into Friday morning for any move up from the back half of the lottery into Buffalo's range at No. 4 or No. 9. The Sabres have shown they will deal if the return is right.

Round 2 starts Saturday at 11 AM ET and is where the value tier on Verhoeff, Rudolph and Smits really gets tested. The Hobey Baker Award Top-10 finalist class includes McKenna, per Penn State, but the deeper NCAA names show up in Round 2 for teams comfortable taking a slower development curve.

Chad AI tracks every NHL Draft prop and team-build futures angle inside the app. Daily NHL picks are tracked at /daily-picks/nhl/.

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