EPL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, August 22, 2026

Analysis

Everton's playing at home and the market is giving us a plus money price on their moneyline. That's a mistake. My model has their win probability at 58.8 percent, which creates a significant 13.3 percent edge against the current odds. Both teams are starting the season with fresh slates, but the home field advantage at Goodison Park is clearly being overlooked. The model projects Everton to score 1.4 goals while keeping the visitor off the board entirely. That's a stout defensive projection for the Toffees. The spread is currently sitting at minus 0.25 but the model thinks it should be closer to minus 0.4. When you see a discrepancy like that, you take the home side. Crystal Palace is always a difficult opponent, but they haven't shown enough to justify this near pick em price on the road. We are looking at a potential shutout for Everton if the backline holds up as expected. I'm trusting the numbers here. Everton has the talent to control the pace of this game and find the back of the net at least once. Plus money for a team with a nearly 60 percent chance to win is a gift. A massive edge.

Public Fade

The public loves to bet against Everton because they aren't the flashiest team in the league. People see Crystal Palace as a trendy underdog, but the model says the value is firmly with the home side.

Analysis

Seeing Tottenham as a slight underdog or even in a pick em scenario against Brentford might surprise some fans. But the numbers don't lie. Brentford's a beast at home and the model is showing a 12.4 percent edge on their moneyline at plus 110. With a win probability of 60.1 percent, this is one of the strongest plays on the board today. The model projects Brentford to find the net 1.4 times while stifling the Spurs attack. It's rare to see Tottenham projected for a zero goal output, but that's exactly what the data suggests could happen. Brentford's system is designed to frustrate high octane offenses and they do it better than almost anyone in the league. The spread is currently minus 0.25, but my model suggests it should be closer to minus 0.4. That gap is where we find our profit. Tottenham always draws a lot of public money because of their brand, but they often struggle in these gritty away fixtures. If Brentford can dictate the physical play in the midfield, they'll walk away with all three points. I'm not worried about the big names on the other side. I'm playing the numbers and the numbers say Brentford is the much better value. A clear home favorite.

Public Fade

Everyone sees the Tottenham name and assumes they should be favored regardless of the venue. The public will likely hammer the Spurs moneyline, which only makes our position on Brentford even stronger.

Analysis

This is a classic pick em game where the model sees a slight but distinct advantage for the home side. Nottingham Forest is sitting at plus 0 on the spread, meaning we get our money back if the game ends in a draw. That's a great safety net for a team the model gives a 56.6 percent win probability to. Leeds is always a chaotic team to bet on, and going into a hostile environment like Forest's home ground is never easy. The model projects Forest to score 1.4 goals and keep Leeds scoreless. If that defensive projection holds, we're in for a very good day. The edge on the spread is 2.8 percent, which might seem small compared to the other games, but it's a very solid recommendation from the model. The book has the line at zero, but our model thinks it should be minus 0.1 or even as high as minus 0.4 in some simulations. Getting the draw protection at a decent price is the smart way to play this. Leeds can be explosive, but their consistency on the road is always a question mark. Forest has shown they can grind out results when they need to. I expect a tight match where one moment of quality makes the difference. Trust the process.

Public Fade

Leeds usually attracts bettors who like high scoring, chaotic games. The public might be tempted to take Leeds as a road dog, but the model suggests Forest is the more stable side to back in this spot.