MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, August 23, 2026

Analysis

Sean Newcomb is the real deal this season with a 2.44 ERA and he is the primary reason the model is so heavy on Chicago today. He is facing a Mets offense that ranks 23rd in the league and has struggled to put together consistent innings on the road. That is a recipe for a low scoring day for New York. Nolan McLean isn't bad for the Mets, but the White Sox offense is actually a top 10 unit at number 7. The model is screaming at us here because it has the White Sox winning by nearly a run and a half, yet the books are giving us 1.5 runs as a cushion. That is a 36.8 percent edge which is one of the highest we have seen all month. Chicago plays well at home too, covering the spread 63 percent of the time in their own stadium. They have won 6 of their last 10 and look like a team that is finally clicking. The Mets are just 58 and 71 and have struggled to find consistency on the road. When you look at the season averages, Chicago is putting up 4.8 runs per game while only giving up 3.1. The Mets are giving up more than they score. This isn't just about the White Sox being better than people think, it's about the Mets being overvalued by the market. Take the runs and run.

Public Fade

The public sees the Mets brand name and assumes they should handle a sub .500 White Sox team. They are ignoring that Newcomb is the best pitcher in this matchup and Chicago has a top 10 offense.

Analysis

This is a classic case of the market respecting the better record too much. Yes, Tampa Bay has 76 wins, but the Orioles have had their number all season long. Baltimore is 8 and 4 in the head to head series with an average margin of one run. That tells me they know how to play this team and aren't intimidated by the Rays' standing in the division. Shane Baz takes the mound for the O's and while his 4.02 ERA isn't elite, it's reliable enough to keep them in the game. On the other side, Nick Martinez has a shiny 3.05 season ERA, but look closer at his recent form. He has been getting tagged for a 4.90 ERA lately. That is a massive red flag that suggests he's hitting a wall. The model thinks this game is basically a toss up, set at a 0.2 run spread in favor of Baltimore. Getting 1.5 runs with the home team that has dominated the season series is a gift. The Rays have also been shaky lately, going just 4 and 6 in their last 10 games. Baltimore is 5 and 5 and playing with a lot more grit. Their offense ranks 16th which is right in the middle of the pack, but against a struggling Martinez, they should find some gaps. The value is clearly on the Orioles side here.

Public Fade

Bettors are flocking to the Rays because of their 76 and 52 record. But the head to head data shows Baltimore is the better matchup play, especially with Martinez struggling lately.

Analysis

You have to ride the hot hand sometimes and Kansas City is as hot as it gets. They are on a 6 game winning streak and have won 7 of their last 10 games. That kind of momentum matters in late August when teams start to look toward the off season. Daniel Lynch IV is on the hill for the Royals and his 2.83 season ERA is excellent. Even though he has had a couple of rough starts recently, his overall body of work this year suggests he will bounce back against a Detroit offense that is strictly average. The Tigers have been heading in the opposite direction, losing 7 of their last 10 games. The season series is dead even at 6 and 6, so there is no reason to think Detroit should be favored by this much on the road. The model sees this as a 0.1 run spread, essentially a pick'em. When a game is that close, you always take the 1.5 runs with the home team. Kansas City covers the spread 52 percent of the time at home and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. Detroit's defense is solid, ranking 6th, but their offense won't be able to pull away from Lynch if he's anywhere near his season form. This should be a tight, low scoring affair.

Public Fade

The public is betting against the Royals because of their overall record. They are missing the fact that KC is on a 6 game winning streak and has a pitcher with a sub 3.00 ERA on the mound.