MLS Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, August 23, 2026

Analysis

New England Revolution has been a force at home this season. They currently hold a record of ten wins, seven draws, and three losses. What really stands out is their performance against the spread. They cover eighty percent of their matches when playing at the Fort. That is a staggering number compared to New York City FC, who only manage to cover thirty three percent of their games on the road. The model sees a clear edge here. It projects the spread at minus 0.7, but the books are only asking for minus 0.25. That is a 9.7 percent edge that we have to take. The Revolution defense is ranked fifth in the league. They only allow 1.3 goals per match. New York City FC has a decent attack that scores 1.7 per game, but they are facing a very disciplined back line. On the other side, the NYC FC defense is ranked eleventh and gives up 1.4 goals per game. My model also loves the under here. It projects 2.3 total goals against a line of 2.5. New England is comfortable winning one to zero or two to zero. They don't need to get into a shootout to secure three points. We are backing the better home team and a low scoring affair.

Public Fade

The public loves betting on the New York name and their slightly higher scoring average. They see NYC FC scoring 1.7 goals a game and assume they will find the net easily, but they are ignoring New England's elite home defense and dominant record against the spread.

Analysis

This match features two teams that have struggled for much of the season, but there is one glaring stat that separates them. Sporting Kansas City has the worst defense in the entire league. They are ranked thirtieth out of thirty teams and they allow 2.5 goals per game. That is an incredibly high number that suggests they simply cannot stop anyone from scoring. Atlanta United is not exactly a defensive powerhouse, but they rank twentieth in the league. That is a significant step up from the disaster in Kansas City. The model is very high on Atlanta here. It gives them a 73.6 percent chance to win the game. Even though the Atlanta offense is ranked twenty eighth, they are facing a defense that practically gives goals away. Atlanta scores 1.1 per game on average, and they should have no trouble improving that number tonight. Sporting Kansas City has the worst offense in the league as well, scoring only 0.9 goals per match. They are essentially the worst team on both sides of the ball right now. The model sees the spread at a full goal, but we can get it at minus 0.75. That gives us a strong edge. Atlanta should be able to handle business at home against a team that is fundamentally broken at the back.

Public Fade

Casual bettors see two bad teams and immediately want to take the points with the underdog or bet the draw. They think because both records are poor, the game is a coin flip. The reality is that the Sporting Kansas City defense is historically bad and that creates a massive floor for Atlanta.