NBA Best Bets March 28: Suns Jazz and Hornets 76ers Top Edges on Six Game Slate

Analysis

Phoenix hosts Utah tonight, but that -17.5 spread is a joke. Model projects Suns by just 3 points. Utah's got fight left, even without Lauri Markkanen. Phoenix is missing Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams, Haywood Highsmith, and Amir Coffey. That's a battered roster. Suns struggle without depth. They've covered only 2 of their last 8 as double digit favorites without key wings. Utah plays scrappy ball on the road. They kept it within 12 in 4 of 6 recent away dogs of 15 or more. Model win probability sits at 27.4% for Jazz, but +800 moneyline implies just 11.1%. Massive overlay there too. Total's another play. Model at 223 against 229.5. Both teams limp offensively sans stars. Phoenix shoots 42% without Brooks spacing the floor. Utah grinds pace down to 96 possessions without Markkanen. Last five combined unders hit 4 times. Rest advantage? Utah's fresher by a day. Suns played yesterday. This cover's in reach. And the under locks it up. Public piles on Phoenix stars. Fade that noise. Utah covers easy.

Public Fade

Everyone sees Phoenix's name and hammers the spread. Markkanen out hurts Utah, sure, but Phoenix's injury list is longer. Bettors ignore the Suns' recent blowup covers as big faves.

Analysis

Charlotte welcomes Philadelphia at home. Model loves Hornets by 8.8 against a -5.5 line. Sixers down Johni Broome, their frontcourt anchor. Charlotte's only out Tidjane Salaun. Minimal damage. Hornets feast on weak interiors. They rank top 5 in paint points allowed lately. Philly shoots 38% without Broome's screening. Charlotte's home dogs turned favorites now. They've won 7 straight covers at home versus sub .500 foes. Model win prob 94.8%. Total edge too. 228.7 projection crushes under 233.5. Pace slows here. Philly crawls without Broome pushing transition. Charlotte controls tempo, top 10 defensive rating last 10. They've hit under in 6 of 8 home games. Sixers road woes? 1-7 straight up last 8 away as dogs. Charlotte's starters healthy, motivated late season. This isn't close. Hornets roll by double digits. Public sleeps on Charlotte's surge.

Public Fade

Bettors love Philly's brand name, even banged up. They bet Embiid-less narratives, but Broome's absence guts their size. Charlotte's flying under radar at home.