NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, May 23, 2026

Analysis

The model spread sits at minus 1.3 while the books have Carolina favored at minus 1.5. That half goal gap creates a small but real edge on Montreal plus the goals. Carolina scores three and a half per game while allowing two point nine. Montreal puts up three point four and gives up three point one. Both teams rank well offensively against each other. Carolina's power play hits twenty four point nine percent against Montreal's penalty kill at seventy eight point two. Montreal's power play sits at twenty three point one against Carolina's eighty point five kill rate. The special teams battle looks fairly even on paper. But head to head this season tells a different story. Montreal has beaten Carolina in all three meetings by an average of three goals. Montreal covers seventy one percent on the road while Carolina covers just twenty four percent at home. The road team has been the better bet in this matchup. The model likes Carolina on the moneyline but the spread value sits with Montreal plus one point five.

Public Fade

Most bettors see Carolina as the stronger team and want to lay the goals. They miss that Montreal has owned this series all year and covers at a high rate away from home.