NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, May 25, 2026

Analysis

The model sees Carolina as a 3.3 percent overlay on the moneyline. Montreal scores 3.4 goals per game and gives up 3.1 while Carolina puts up 3.5 and allows just 2.9. That gap shows up in the rankings too. Carolina offense sits second in the league while Montreal defense ranks 18th. Special teams lean Carolina as well. Their power play converts 24.9 percent against a Montreal penalty kill that sits at 78.2 percent. Montreal holds a 3-1 head to head edge this season but the average margin was just two goals and those games came earlier in the year. Carolina covers 63 percent of spreads on the road while Montreal covers just 48 percent at home. The model spread sits at plus 1.3 but the book has it at 1.5, giving Carolina the lean on the puck line too. Recent form points to Carolina as the hotter team coming in.

Public Fade

Most bettors will look at Montreal 3-1 head to head record and assume the home side stays live. The model sees that as noise. The sample is small and the underlying numbers favor Carolina across the board.