NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Analysis

The model has Colorado at 1.3 goals better than Vegas. Books have that gap at 1.5. That difference creates a lean on the Avalanche minus 1.5. Colorado scores 3.6 goals per game while allowing just 2.4. Vegas scores 3.2 and gives up 3.0. The matchup favors Colorado on both ends. Their offense ranks first against a Vegas defense sitting thirteenth. Vegas offense sits thirteenth against a Colorado defense ranked third overall. Special teams lean toward Colorado too. Their power play generates about 0.54 goals per game against Vegas penalty kill. Vegas power play is slightly better against Colorado but not enough to swing the game. Head to head this season tells its own story. Vegas went 4 and 0 against Colorado but those wins came by an average of just 1.8 goals. Colorado covers 61 percent of the time on the road while Vegas covers only 46 percent at home. The model win probability sits at 46.6 percent for Colorado. That creates a 4.2 percent edge on the moneyline at minus 120. The data lines up across multiple categories.

Public Fade

Most bettors see Vegas at home and remember their 4 and 0 record against Colorado this year. They are fading the better team because of that head to head mark. The model shows those wins were close and the underlying numbers favor Colorado heavily.