Serie A Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, August 24, 2026

Analysis

Roma is hosting Fiorentina and the market is simply not giving the home side enough respect. Our model shows a massive 13.4 percent edge on the moneyline for AS Roma. That is a significant number for a top tier league like Serie A where edges are usually much thinner. We are looking at a win probability of 72.5 percent. This makes the minus 145 price look like a total steal for bettors who want to avoid the messiness of the spread. The evidence suggests a tight game where Roma finds the breakthrough. Both teams are projected to score about 1.3 goals per game, but Roma's home field advantage and superior win probability tilt the scales heavily. While the spread is sitting at Roma minus 0.75, the real value is just taking them to win outright. Don't overcomplicate this one. The model's spread of minus 0.7 aligns closely with the market, but the moneyline price is where the bookmakers have left the door wide open for us. Fiorentina is always a tough out, but they are facing a Roma side that typically locks things down at the Stadio Olimpico. The model projects Roma to allow zero goals in this specific matchup scenario. If they can keep a clean sheet, that minus 145 price will look like a gift by the final whistle. Trust the win probability here.

Public Fade

The public loves to bet on Fiorentina as a live underdog because they play a flashy style of soccer. They see the plus money and they bite. They are ignoring Roma's dominant 72.5 percent win probability and the strength of the home defense.

Analysis

Bologna is playing host to Lazio in a match that the oddsmakers have basically called a coin flip. The spread is sitting at minus 0.25 for the home side, but our model thinks that is a bit too generous to the visitors. We have the fair line closer to minus 0.4. That gives us a 2.4 percent edge on Bologna to cover the small number. It's a classic case of the model trusting the home team's ability to control the pace of the game. Lazio is always a popular name for casual bettors, but they are walking into a very tough environment here. Both teams are averaging 1.3 goals per game in the model projections. However, the defensive stats favor Bologna holding firm. The model expects a 2.5 total, which is exactly what the books have posted, so we are not touching the over or the under. We are focusing strictly on Bologna's ability to edge out a result. Getting Bologna at minus 0.25 means a draw only costs you half your stake, while a win pays out in full. With a 59.7 percent win probability, that is a safety net I am happy to have. Lazio has struggled to find consistency on the road in these types of gritty matchups. Bologna has the tactical discipline to frustrate them for ninety minutes and walk away with the points.

Public Fade

Most casual bettors see the Lazio name and assume they are the better side. They will flock to the plus money on the visitors or the draw. The data says Bologna is the more reliable play at home in this spot.