MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, August 1, 2026

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Seattle is hosting Minnesota and the books are giving us a total of 7. That's way too low for this matchup. Our model has this pegged at 8 runs which creates a massive 13.9 percent edge on the over. Logan Gilbert is a solid arm for the Mariners but his recent 4.00 ERA shows he's human. On the other side you have Connor Prielipp who carries a 4.73 ERA and hasn't exactly been a shutdown force. Minnesota brings the ninth ranked offense in the league to the park today. They're averaging 4.7 runs per game and have won 6 of their last 10. Seattle's offense is usually a struggle but they're facing a Twins defense that ranks twenty fifth in the league. That's a recipe for some scoring. The Mariners have been cold lately with only 3 wins in their last 10 games. But this isn't about who wins as much as it's about the scoreboard. Minnesota's road spread trend is strong at 54 percent. They can put up numbers against anyone. When you have one top ten offense and two pitchers who have been giving up runs lately, 7 is a gift. Expect the Twins to do most of the heavy lifting here. But Seattle should chip in enough against Prielipp to push this over the finish line. It's the strongest total on the board for a reason.

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The public sees Logan Gilbert and immediately thinks of a low scoring pitcher duel. They're ignoring that Minnesota has a top ten offense and Prielipp is prone to giving up big innings.

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The Orioles are home dogs getting 1.5 runs and I'm all over it. There's a 12.5 percent edge here according to the model. People see Cristopher Sanchez and his 2.73 season ERA and they hammer Philly. But look at the recent numbers. Sanchez has been shelled for an 8.11 ERA in his latest starts. He's falling apart. Meanwhile Baltimore is sending Shane Baz to the mound. Baz has a 3.98 season ERA but he's been locked in lately with a 2.97 mark. That's a massive advantage for the O's that the market isn't pricing in correctly. Philadelphia is playing some of their worst baseball of the year right now. They've lost 8 of their last 10 games. They're also terrible on the road when it comes to covering the spread, hitting that mark only 36 percent of the time. Baltimore is the opposite. They cover 56 percent of their home games. The Orioles already beat the Phillies earlier this season and they're the much more consistent team right now. Their offense ranks twelfth in the league while Philly's defense is middle of the pack at seventeenth. Baltimore scores 4.6 runs a game and allows only 3.8. The math just doesn't add up for Philly to be this big of a favorite. Take the runs and run.

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Bettors are falling for the season long ERA of Sanchez. They're missing the fact that he's been a disaster recently and that Philly has only won 2 of their last 10 games.

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This is the heavyweight fight of the night. Both the Cubs and Yankees sit at 62 wins and 48 losses. But the pitching matchup is where the Yankees take control. Max Fried is a top tier talent with a 3.23 ERA. Even though his recent form has been a bit shaky, he's miles ahead of David Peterson. Peterson is sporting a 6.09 ERA. That's a death sentence against a Yankees offense that ranks eleventh in the league. The model gives New York a 4 percent edge on the moneyline and I'm taking it. Chicago has a great offense, ranking third in the league, but they're facing the third ranked Yankees defense. It's strength against strength. But when the Cubs are in the field, they have to rely on Peterson to keep things close. He's allowing over 5 runs a game on average. The Yankees cover the spread in 51 percent of their road games while the Cubs only cover 40 percent at home. We're also looking at an edge on the over 6.5 here. Peterson is going to give up runs and the Cubs offense is too good to be completely shut down by Fried. It's a high stakes game but the Yankees have the clear advantage on the mound. Trust the better pitcher in a pick'em scenario every time.

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The public loves the Cubs at home because of their high ranking offense. But they're overlooking David Peterson's 6.09 ERA which is a massive liability against a disciplined Yankees lineup.