MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Tuesday, August 25, 2026

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Jacob deGrom is on the mound for Texas, which usually means the public blindly bets the Rangers. But look at the actual numbers. Anthony Kay has been surprisingly solid lately with a 3.18 ERA over his recent starts. The White Sox offense is ranked seventh in the league while the Rangers offense is lagging way behind at twenty sixth. Chicago scores nearly five runs per game and they are facing a Texas team that struggles to find consistent hitting. The model has this priced as Chicago being a slight favorite, yet we are getting a run and a half with the home team. Chicago covers the spread 62% of the time at home. Texas only covers 40% of their road games. This is a massive discrepancy that the market has not caught up to yet. DeGrom is great, but he cannot win games if his offense does not show up. And the Rangers offense has been a liability all season. But the real edge is the pitching efficiency. Kay is limiting damage while the White Sox lineup is deep enough to frustrate even an elite starter. We are taking the cushion here because the model sees a 35.2% edge on this spread. It is the strongest play on the board today. Chicago should keep this within one run or win it outright.

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The public sees the name Jacob deGrom and immediately hammers the Rangers. They ignore that the White Sox have a top ten offense and a significant home field advantage when it comes to covering the spread.

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I do not care that Seattle is at home. The Phillies are the hottest team in baseball right now. They are on a nine game winning streak and have won nine of their last ten. Aaron Nola had a rough start to the year but he has been locked in recently with a 2.55 ERA. On the flip side, George Kirby is falling apart. His recent ERA is over seven. That is a recipe for disaster against a Philadelphia offense that ranks tenth in the league. Seattle has the second worst offense in the entire majors. They struggle to put the ball in play and now they have to face a rejuvenated Nola. The model thinks the Phillies should actually be favored here, not getting a run and a half. We are getting the better pitcher, the better offense, and the team with all the momentum. Seattle won the only head to head meeting earlier this year, but these teams are heading in opposite directions right now. Philadelphia allows only 3.9 runs per game while Seattle is giving up over five. When you combine a surging offense with a pitcher who has found his rhythm, you get a massive edge. I am riding the hot hand and taking the points with Philly. They are simply the better team in this matchup.

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Casual bettors might see Seattle as a home favorite and think Kirby will bounce back. They are ignoring his recent blowouts and the fact that Philly has not lost a game in over a week.

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Max Scherzer is a legend, but the version of him we are seeing in Toronto right now is a problem. He has a 7.40 ERA on the season. Even his improved recent form is still sitting near a 5.00 ERA. The Blue Jays offense is dead last in the league. They are the thirtieth ranked offense out of thirty teams. Kansas City is on an eight game winning streak and they are playing inspired baseball. Seth Lugo has his own struggles, but the Royals offense is significantly better than Toronto's right now. The model sees this as basically a pick em game. Getting a run and a half with a team that has won nine of its last ten games is incredible value. Toronto only covers the spread at home 47% of the time. Kansas City is 9 and 1 in their last ten games and they are finding ways to win close contests. Scherzer's name is carrying this line, but his performance does not justify it. He is giving up way too many runs for a team that cannot score any of their own. Kansas City is ranked higher in offense and has the momentum of a long winning streak. I will take the Royals to keep this close or win it outright while the Blue Jays continue to search for their bats.

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People still bet on Max Scherzer because of his name and history. They are not looking at the fact that he is getting hit hard and his team has the worst offense in the league.