MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, September 24, 2026

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Atlanta is the best favorite on this board, and the model is making that clear. The Braves are projected to win by 3.3 runs against a market line of 1.5, creating a massive 19.2 percent edge. Atlanta scores 4.6 runs per game and allows only 3.3, while Cincinnati scores 4.1 and gives up 7.1. That defensive gap is the entire story here. The starting pitching matchup adds fuel. Tyler Mahle owns a 5.13 ERA, but his recent mark is a much better 1.19. Brady Singer has a 5.67 ERA and his recent figure has ballooned to 11.78. That is a brutal setup for a Cincinnati team already facing the number 9 offense against the number 28 defense matchup. Atlanta's offense ranks ninth, while its defense ranks fifth. Cincinnati's offense ranks 27th and its defense ranks 28th. The model's run distribution also lands at Atlanta 2.5 runs better than Cincinnati, with the full projection reaching 3.3. Atlanta is 92 and 65, compared with Cincinnati at 73 and 84. The season series has been closer than the records suggest, with Atlanta holding a 3 to 2 edge and an average margin of only 0.6 runs. Still, the current pitching and defensive profiles point toward separation. Atlanta's 51 percent home cover rate isn't inspiring, but this number is too short for the matchup.

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Casual bettors may see Atlanta's 51 percent home cover rate and the close season series, then hesitate to lay the runs. That misses Cincinnati's 7.1 runs allowed per game and Singer's recent 11.78 ERA. The public is likely overvaluing the earlier head to head results.

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Pittsburgh is getting a strong model push at home, with the spread projection calling for a 1.6 run advantage against a 1.5 run market number. That creates an 18.3 percent edge on the Pirates. The moneyline isn't attractive at the listed price, but the run line gives us a cleaner way to back the matchup. Paul Skenes brings a 3.91 ERA into this game, while St. Louis counters with Kyle Leahy. Leahy's season ERA is 3.65, but his recent number is 7.11. That recent split matters against a Pittsburgh offense scoring 4.8 runs per game and ranking sixth in MLB. St. Louis scores 4.5 runs per game, allows 4.9, and owns the number 22 defense. Pittsburgh's defense ranks 19th, so this isn't a perfect matchup, but the Pirates have the superior offensive profile. Pittsburgh is also playing better. The Pirates are 6 and 4 over their last 10 games, while St. Louis is 4 and 6. The model's broader run estimate sits at 0.9 runs for Pittsburgh, but the primary spread output pushes the expected margin to 1.6. That difference explains why the model likes the run line more than the moneyline. The total also carries value, with a projection of 7.4 against a market number of 6.5. Pittsburgh's offense should create enough pressure for the favorite to clear this number.

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The public may prefer St. Louis because the Cardinals have covered 55 percent on the road and Pittsburgh is only at 49 percent at home. But recent form, the offensive rankings, and Leahy's 7.11 recent ERA all point toward Pittsburgh. The Pirates are the side with the cleaner current profile.

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This is the contrarian position of the day. New York is at home and has the better starting pitcher on paper, but the model still gives Tampa Bay a 17 percent edge with 1.5 runs in hand. The primary projection makes New York a 0.8 run favorite, not a 1.5 run favorite. Another model output centers the expected margin at 1.4, still just below the market threshold. Cam Schlittler has been excellent for New York, carrying a 1.94 ERA with a recent mark of 0.84. Ian Seymour's 4.38 ERA and recent 5.34 are less impressive. That pitching edge explains why New York is favored, but it doesn't erase Tampa Bay's broader team profile. The Rays are 96 and 61, compared with the Yankees at 90 and 67, and Tampa Bay is 8 and 2 over its last 10 games. New York is only 5 and 5 during that stretch. The matchup is close offensively, with New York ranking eighth and Tampa Bay 10th. The bigger contrast comes on defense. Tampa Bay ranks seventh, while New York ranks first. The Yankees allow 2.1 runs per game, but the Rays still bring enough offense at 4.5 runs per game to make the extra run and a half valuable. Tampa Bay has also gone 5 and 7 against New York this season, with the Yankees holding only a 0.3 average margin. The total projection of 7.3 against 6.5 adds support to the idea that one run could decide this game.

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The public will naturally gravitate toward New York behind Schlittler's 1.94 ERA and the Yankees' number one defense. That is already reflected in the price. Tampa Bay's 8 and 2 recent record, stronger season record, and 1.5 runs are the better value.