NBA Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, October 24, 2026

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Cleveland and Brooklyn both enter at 0 and 1, and the side market isn't giving us enough value to force a Cavaliers bet. The model makes Cleveland an 11 point favorite, but the market is already at Cleveland minus 10.5. That difference is too small, especially with the spread edge listed at zero percent. The total tells the same story. The model projects 229.18 points against a line of 227.5, yet that gap hasn't produced a playable edge either. The better angle is Jaylon Tyson under 1.5 three pointers. His projection sits at 1.28, which puts the under on the right side of the number before we even get to the price. The sharpest US books produce a no vig fair chance of 64 percent for the under, equivalent to fair odds of minus 178. BetMGM is offering minus 155. That is the key difference. We aren't guessing about a shooting night or building a case around a made up matchup trend. We're taking a price that is better than the market's fair line. Cleveland has three listed absences, Khalifa Diop, Nae'Qwan Tomlin, and Ernest Udeh Jr. Brooklyn is without Tyler Bilodeau. None of that creates a confirmed side edge, so the prop remains the play. Simple and priced correctly.

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Casual bettors will see Cleveland as an obvious home favorite and may lay the 10.5 after the model shows an 81.4 percent win probability. But the spread edge is zero percent, and that favorite narrative doesn't create value. The under on Tyson is the sharper way to attack this game.

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Phoenix and Golden State are both 0 and 1, but the model sees a clear separation between the teams. Phoenix is projected as a 9.5 point favorite, while the market has the Suns at minus 8.5. That is a one point gap toward Phoenix, although the listed spread edge is still zero percent, so I don't want to pretend the side is an official play. The total is more interesting. The model projects 218.77 points, while the market is asking bettors to clear 221.5. That's a difference of 2.73 points in favor of the under. The data doesn't assign a positive model edge to the wager, and the official recommendation is pass, but the direction is hard to ignore. If you're looking for a position, the under is the only side of this total that makes sense from the projection. The injury report matters here. Phoenix is without Mark Williams. Golden State is missing Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, and Charles Bassey. Those absences remove several contributors from the matchup, and the model still lands below the posted number despite Phoenix's expected advantage. That gives the under a stronger structural case than the spread. Still, discipline matters. The model confidence is 77 percent, but no positive edge is listed. This is a lean, not a full strength wager. The number is playable only if you accept that distinction.

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The public may gravitate toward the over because both teams are recognizable and Phoenix is favored at home. But the model projects 218.77 points, well below 221.5. The smarter contrarian position is the under, even though the official grade remains a pass.

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Atlanta is 2 and 0, Houston is 1 and 0, and the market has this matchup priced as close to a coin flip. Atlanta is a 1.5 point home favorite, while the model makes the Hawks a 1.43 point favorite. That is essentially no separation, which explains the zero percent spread edge and the model's modest 52 percent confidence. There isn't enough here to make the side worth chasing. The total is a different story on paper. The model projects 228.36 points, while the posted number is only 218.5. That's a sizeable gap toward the over, but the listed recommendation is still pass and the model edge is recorded at zero percent. I won't manufacture an official total play from a discrepancy that the system hasn't graded as actionable. The prop market gives us the cleaner entry. C.J. McCollum's projection is 2.08 three pointers, below the posted line of 2.5. The sharpest US books assign the under a 65.7 percent fair chance, and the available BetMGM price of minus 165 is better than the no vig fair line of minus 191. That creates a 5.4 percent expected value edge. Atlanta is missing Henri Veesaar and Mouhamed Gueye, while Houston is without Reed Sheppard. Those are the listed injuries, but the prop case is driven by price. The number is 2.5, the projection is below it, and the market price gives us room. That's enough to take the under.

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Bettors may see Atlanta's 2 and 0 start and Houston's unbeaten record and expect another offensive game, especially with the total projection above the market. But the side and total are both officially passes. The McCollum under is the sharper wager because the price, not the early season narrative, creates the edge.