NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, October 24, 2026

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The model projects 5.87 goals for Philadelphia Flyers versus Anaheim Ducks, and that puts the value on the under when the available number is 6. The listed total is 5.5, but the recommendation is specifically under 6, which gives us a better price and protection if this lands exactly on six. That half goal matters in hockey. Neither team enters with a winning record. Philadelphia is 3 and 6, while Anaheim is 4 and 6, so this isn't a matchup where the numbers are pointing toward two dominant offenses. The model is also not interested in the side. Philadelphia's projected spread is only minus 0.14 against a line of minus 1.5, and its win probability sits at 52.6 percent. That's a clear signal to avoid forcing a moneyline or puck line bet. Instead, the total gives us the cleanest angle. A projection below six goals suggests the market is asking for too much scoring from this matchup. Philadelphia's projected margin is nearly nothing, which also supports a tighter game rather than a runaway result that could push the total over late. Take the under 6 and let the number work for us.

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The public may see two teams with losing records and assume weak goaltending or loose defense automatically means goals. But the model isn't giving either side enough of an advantage to expect a track meet. The better approach is fading the urge to bet the side and taking the inflated total instead.

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There isn't enough separation in the main Washington Capitals and Buffalo Sabres markets to force a side or total. Washington is 5 and 4, Buffalo is 4 and 4, and the model gives Washington only a 52.8 percent chance to win. Its projected spread is minus 0.16 compared with a line of minus 1.5, so laying the puck line would require far more margin than the projection supports. The total presents the same problem. The model lands at 6.58 against a line of 6.5, which is essentially no edge. That leaves the player market as the sharper way to attack this game, specifically Zach Benson under 0.5 points. The recommendation isn't based on trying to manufacture a matchup story that the supplied numbers don't support. It's based on the price. BetOnline's no vig line makes the under a 51.6 percent fair probability, with fair odds of minus 107. BetMGM is hanging plus 105, which creates a 5.9 percent expected value edge. That's meaningful when the game markets themselves are basically efficient. Washington has the slightly stronger record, but the model does not see enough overall advantage to back the Capitals at minus 1.5 or take a moneyline with no edge. Keep it simple. Benson under 0.5 points is the bet.

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Casual bettors often want to pick a side when two teams are close in the standings, especially with Washington at home. But the model gives the Capitals only a narrow win probability edge and no value on the spread. The sharper contrarian move is passing the game line and taking the plus price on Benson's under.

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Carolina Hurricanes are 8 and 2, the best record in this group by a wide margin, while St. Louis Blues sit at 5 and 4. Still, the main markets aren't offering a playable edge. The model gives Carolina a 41.3 percent chance to win, and its projected spread is plus 0.48 against a line of 1.5. That combination says the matchup could be competitive even with Carolina's stronger record. The total also doesn't provide a recommendation. The model projects 6.14 goals against a line of 6.5, but the listed edge is zero percent. This is important. A lower projection alone isn't enough to turn the under into a bet, especially when the market calculation doesn't identify a real advantage. So the best way into this game is Logan Stankoven over 0.5 points. The number is supported by price rather than an unsupported narrative. BetOnline's no vig market gives Stankoven a 51.2 percent fair chance to record a point, which translates to fair odds of minus 105 on the over. BetMGM is offering plus 105, creating a 5.0 percent expected value edge. Carolina's 8 and 2 record explains why the public may favor the Hurricanes, but it doesn't make the moneyline attractive at this projection. The prop has the cleaner edge.

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The public is likely to chase Carolina because an 8 and 2 record is the loudest number on the board. But the model gives the Hurricanes only a 41.3 percent win probability, and the spread has no edge. Don't pay for the team narrative when Stankoven's over is the market with the better price.