MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, August 13, 2026

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The model is screaming about this spread. It has Miami as a 1.3 run favorite while the books are giving you 1.5 runs with the Marlins as the underdog. That is a massive 34.8 percent edge. You do not see that often in mid August. The starting pitching matchup is the biggest reason why. Tyler Phillips has been reliable with a 3.47 ERA on the season. Compare that to Braxton Ashcraft for the Pirates. Ashcraft has been getting absolutely shelled lately. His recent ERA is a bloated 7.88 and he is struggling to find the zone. And then you look at the head to head history. Miami has owned Pittsburgh this season. They have won 4 of the 5 meetings so far with an average margin of nearly three runs. The Marlins are also coming in hot with a three game winning streak and a 6 and 4 record over their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Pirates are sliding. They have lost 7 of their last 10. Pittsburgh might have the better overall season record, but they are playing like a team that has given up. Miami covers the spread in 53 percent of their home games while the Pirates only cover in 44 percent of their road trips. The math is clear. Take the runs and run to the window.

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The public sees Pittsburgh ranked fourth in offense and thinks they will overpower Miami. They are ignoring Ashcraft's recent 7.88 ERA and the fact that Miami has won 80 percent of the head to head games this year.

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Everyone loves a big name like Jacob deGrom, but the version of deGrom we are seeing right now is not the ace of old. He has a 5.25 ERA over his most recent starts. On the other side, Walbert Urena has been a revelation for the Angels. He is sitting on a 2.83 ERA for the season and has been even better lately with a 2.24 mark. The model actually has the Angels as a 1 run favorite in this game. Getting 1.5 runs with the better performing pitcher is a gift. The Angels have also played the Rangers very well this year. They are 6 and 3 in the season series. Even though the Angels have a poor overall record, they compete in these divisional matchups. Texas is a .500 team that struggles on the road. They only cover the spread 40 percent of the time when they are away from home. The Angels cover at a 54 percent clip in their own building. This is a game where the Angels defense, ranked 24th, should be able to hold a Texas offense that is also ranked 24th. It will be a low scoring affair. But the Angels have the advantage on the mound. Urena is the much more consistent arm right now. Don't let the team records fool you. This is a tight matchup that favors the home dog.

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Casual bettors are going to hammer the Rangers because of the deGrom name and the Angels' poor record. They aren't looking at Urena's 2.24 recent ERA or deGrom's recent struggles.

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The Detroit Tigers are playing some of the best baseball in the league right now. They are 8 and 2 in their last ten games and are currently on a three game winning streak. Cleveland is headed in the opposite direction. The Guardians have lost 8 of their last 10 games. This is a classic case of two teams moving in different directions. The model has Detroit as a small favorite, yet the books are giving them 1.5 runs as an underdog. That creates a massive 28.5 percent edge for us. Keider Montero has been solid for Detroit with a 3.38 ERA. He faces a Cleveland offense that is ranked 28th in the entire league. That is nearly dead last. Detroit's defense is ranked 4th in the league, which means they are elite at preventing runs. Even though Parker Messick has been great for Cleveland, he has almost no run support to work with. Detroit is scoring 4.6 runs per game while Cleveland is only managing 4.0. The Guardians have dominated the head to head series earlier this year, but that was a different Tigers team. Right now, Detroit is focused and winning. They cover the spread in 56 percent of their home games. Cleveland is struggling to find any rhythm. Take the hottest team in the league and the extra runs.

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The public is looking at the 1 and 7 head to head record and assuming Cleveland has Detroit's number. They are ignoring the fact that Detroit is 8 and 2 lately while Cleveland is 2 and 8.