MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Analyse

Jared Jones has been struggling lately. His season ERA is sitting at 5.28 and he has actually been worse recently with a 5.63 mark over his last few starts. That is a problem when you are facing an Atlanta offense that ranks sixth in the league. The Braves score nearly five runs per game. They should have no trouble finding success against a guy who is giving up plenty of hard contact. Pittsburgh is no slouch at the plate either. They actually rank third in the league in offensive production. They are scoring 5.2 runs per game on average. While Grant Holmes has been better than Jones, he is still gettable for a top three offense. Our model is projecting 10.2 total runs here. That is a massive 12.8 percent edge over the posted line of 9. The Pirates have split their last ten games and are riding a two game winning streak. They are playing competitive baseball. The Braves have a top five defense, but the Pirates score enough to push this over the limit. When you have two offenses in the top six of the league and a struggling starter on the mound, nine runs feels like a gift. It does not matter that the Braves defense is elite. The Pirates are putting up numbers. Trust the model and take the over.

Public fade

The public sees the Braves defense and Grant Holmes and thinks this will be a low scoring affair. They are ignoring the fact that Pittsburgh has a top three offense and Jared Jones is getting shelled lately.

Analyse

The Marlins are getting no respect at home despite being on a heater. They have won seven of their last ten games and are currently on a three game winning streak. Tyler Phillips is on the hill for Miami. While his recent ERA of 6.07 looks scary, his season long average of 3.52 is much more indicative of his actual talent. He is facing a Seattle offense that is one of the worst in the league, ranking twenty seventh overall. The Mariners only score 4.1 runs per game. George Kirby is a solid starter for Seattle, but the Marlins offense is middle of the pack at eleventh and has already beaten Seattle this year. Miami covers the spread in 54 percent of their home games. Meanwhile, Seattle is atrocious on the road against the spread, covering only 38 percent of the time. Our model shows an 11.2 percent edge on Miami catching a run and a half. This should be a tight, low scoring game where every run matters. Seattle allows very few runs, but their own offense is so stagnant that they rarely blow teams out on the road. Miami has the momentum and the home field advantage. Taking the runs here is the sharp move. The Mariners are favored because of Kirby, but the value is clearly with the home dog.

Public fade

People love betting on George Kirby because of his name value. They are ignoring that Seattle cannot score and Miami has been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last two weeks.

Analyse

On paper, this looks like a classic pitchers duel between Logan Webb and Dylan Cease. Cease has been incredible lately with a 2.30 ERA in his recent starts. Webb is also throwing the ball well with a 2.65 recent ERA. But the total of 7 is simply too low for modern baseball. Our model projects 7.3 runs, which gives us a strong 4.1 percent edge on the over. San Francisco scores 4.2 runs per game at home. Toronto is struggling lately, having lost seven of their last ten, but they still have enough talent to scratch out a few runs. The Giants defense is giving up 3.6 runs per game. If both teams just hit their averages, we are already over the seven. It only takes one mistake from a starter or a shaky bullpen inning to blow this total wide open. Webb and Cease are great, but seven is a number you see in the dead ball era. Both teams cover the spread at home and on the road at roughly 48 percent, so they are predictable. We are not looking for a blowout. We just need a 4 to 3 game to push or a 5 to 3 game to cash. In a major league game, that happens more often than not. And with Toronto's recent slump, their pitching might finally crack under the pressure.

Public fade

Casual bettors see two ace pitchers and hammer the under. They forget that even elite pitchers give up a couple of runs, and bullpens are always a wild card late in the game.