MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, July 31, 2026

Analyse

The Astros are coming into this one with a massive rest advantage. Two days of sitting at home while the Rangers are grinding through a back to back schedule that includes travel. That matters in July. Hunter Brown has a nice 3.45 ERA on the season, but his recent form of 4.96 suggests he is starting to feel the heat. On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi has been better lately but he still carries a 4.05 ERA. The model is jumping on the Over 7.5 here with a 9.1 percent edge. Both of these teams have been involved in some high scoring affairs lately. Houston has won 8 of their last 10 games. They are the hot hand. Even though the Rangers have a slightly better record by half a game, the momentum is clearly in the home dugout. The Astros offense ranks 12th in the league and they should have no problem putting pressure on Eovaldi. Texas has struggled to score, ranking 23rd, but the Astros defense isn't exactly elite at 26th. This points toward a game where both sides find the plate. We are taking the 1.5 runs with Houston as a cushion because the model expects a one run game. The Astros have covered nearly half their home games this year and they already lead the season series 6 to 4.

Public fade

The public usually sees a 55 and 54 Rangers team and thinks they are the safe bet. But they are ignoring the travel fatigue and Houston's 8 and 2 run over the last ten games.

Analyse

If you like offense, this is the game for you. We have two starting pitchers who are currently throwing batting practice. Freddy Peralta has been shelled recently to the tune of a 7.15 ERA. Janson Junk is not doing much better with a 6.59 mark over his last few starts. The Vegas total is sitting at 8.5 and the model thinks that is a mistake. It projects 9 runs easily. Miami has a middle of the pack offense that should feast on Peralta. New York might be 26th in scoring, but even a bad offense looks good against a pitcher like Junk. Miami is the better team here despite their recent 3 and 7 slide. They have a 55 and 54 record and their defense actually ranks 11th in the league. The problem is their pitching staff has fallen apart lately. The Mets are 46 and 63 for a reason. They allow over 5 runs per game on average. The model gives a 10.8 percent edge to Miami +1.5. This game should be a back and forth struggle that likely ends in a one run margin. The Mets have won 4 of 7 in the season series, but the average margin is exactly 1.0. Grab the runs with the Marlins and root for the Over.

Public fade

Bettors often look at the Mets as home favorites and expect them to take care of business against a struggling Marlins squad. They are overlooking just how bad Peralta has been lately.

Analyse

The Mariners are sending Bryce Miller to the mound and his 2.75 season ERA looks intimidating. But look closer. His recent form is 4.58 and he is facing a Twins offense that ranks 9th in the majors. This is not a great matchup for him. Minnesota scores 4.7 runs per game and they are 6 and 4 in their last 10. They are playing solid baseball right now. Seattle has been struggling, going 4 and 6 over their last 10 games with an offense that ranks 28th. They are essentially a one dimensional team that relies entirely on their pitching. Zebby Matthews is a concern for Minnesota with a 5.21 ERA. He gives up a lot of contact and the model thinks Seattle will actually manage to score here. That is why the Over 7.5 is a strong play with a 10.4 percent edge. The Twins are great on the road against the spread, covering 53 percent of the time. Seattle only covers 40 percent of their home games. The model puts the spread at -0.7 for Seattle, which means getting 1.5 runs with the Twins is a gift. It is a 9.6 percent edge. Expect a close game where Minnesota's superior offense keeps them within striking distance or wins it outright.

Public fade

Casual fans will see Bryce Miller's season ERA and hammer the Mariners. The model knows his recent numbers tell a different story and the Twins offense is far superior.