MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Analyse

The St. Louis Cardinals are hosting the Baltimore Orioles and the books are giving too much credit to the home side. Michael McGreevy takes the mound for St. Louis with a season ERA of 3.54. That looks decent on paper. But look closer. His recent form is a mess because he is sporting a 6.25 ERA over his last few starts. That is a massive red flag when you are facing a Baltimore team that already beat St. Louis by six runs earlier this season. Kyle Bradish is going for the Orioles and he is trending in the opposite direction. Bradish has a 3.70 season ERA but has been locked in lately with a 3.09 mark in his recent outings. The model sees a huge edge on Baltimore at plus 1.5. In fact, it is a 26.8 percent edge. St. Louis scores 4.4 runs per game while allowing 4.6. Baltimore is a bit more efficient by scoring 4.5 and only giving up 3.7. The Orioles defense ranks 23rd while the Cardinals defense sits at 19th. It is a close matchup on paper but the pitching momentum is clearly with the visitors. Baltimore has split their last ten games and looks ready to jump on a struggling McGreevy. Taking the run and a half feels like stealing here. Especially with the model projecting this as a 0.1 run game.

Public fade

The public is likely to back the Cardinals just because they are at home and sitting at .500 on the season. They are ignoring the fact that McGreevy has been getting shelled lately while Bradish is throwing some of his best stuff of the year.

Analyse

Don't let the records fool you. The Kansas City Royals are 58 and 74 but they are playing like the best team in the league right now. They have won eight games in a row. They have won nine of their last ten. That is the definition of a heater. They send Randy Dobnak to the hill who has been incredible with a 1.58 ERA. Compare that to Spencer Miles for Toronto who sits at a 3.02 ERA. Miles is good, but Dobnak has been nearly untouchable lately. The Blue Jays offense is dead last in the league. They are ranked 30th out of 30 teams. It is hard to lay a point and a half with a team that can not score. Kansas City offense is ranked 21st which is not elite, but it is miles better than what Toronto is putting up. The model finds a 26.4 percent edge on the Royals plus 1.5. Toronto already lost to Kansas City this season by two runs. The Royals are scoring 4.2 runs per game and only allowing 2.8. That defensive stat is the key. They are shutting people down. If the Blue Jays can not find some life in their bats, this eight game win streak for Kansas City is going to hit nine very easily. The model thinks the spread should be 0.1, not 1.5.

Public fade

Casual bettors see the Royals record and automatically bet against them. They are missing the fact that Kansas City has won eight straight games and is currently starting a pitcher with a sub 2.00 ERA.

Analyse

The Chicago White Sox are sitting at 68 and 63 and they have been a covering machine at home. They cover the spread 63 percent of the time in their own ballpark. Today they get a Texas Rangers team that struggles on the road with a 40 percent cover rate. Sean Burke starts for Chicago with a 3.27 ERA. He has been reliable all season. Texas is countering with MacKenzie Gore who has a 4.26 ERA. Gore has been better lately with a 2.15 recent ERA, but the Chicago offense is a different beast. The White Sox have the 6th best offense in baseball. Texas is way down at 25th. That is a massive gap. Chicago scores 4.7 runs per game and gives up 3.7. Texas scores 4.0 and allows 3.6. The model sees a 26.2 percent edge on Chicago plus 1.5. It actually projects the White Sox to win this game outright by about half a run. Even though Texas is on a two game winning streak, Chicago is the more complete team. Their ability to put up runs against a middle of the road Texas defense is the deciding factor. The model is very confident here with an 88 percent rating. Take the points with the home team and do not look back.

Public fade

The public is seeing the Rangers on a two game win streak and Gore's recent ERA and thinking they are the side. They are overlooking Chicago's elite home cover rate and their top ten offense.