MLS Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, July 16, 2026

Analyse

CF Montréal enters this match with a record of 4 wins, 8 losses, and 2 draws. They haven't been the most consistent side in the league, but playing at Stade Saputo changes the math for them entirely. Toronto FC comes in with 3 wins, 6 losses, and 5 draws. While Toronto has managed to pick up points in draws, they haven't shown the ability to actually win games on the road this season. The model sees a clear advantage for the home side in this edition of the 401 Derby. The tactical setup favors Montréal because Toronto struggles to deal with high pressing teams. Montréal might have 8 losses, but their underlying metrics at home suggest they are a much better team than the record shows. They create more high quality chances in front of their own fans. Toronto often looks disjointed when they have to travel. Their 5 draws show they can hang around, but they rarely have the legs to finish the job in the final 20 minutes. And let's look at the defensive side of things. Both teams have had their issues, but Montréal has shown a bit more grit in tight games lately. This match is going to be physical and probably a bit ugly at times. That suits the home side just fine. They won't mind a scrappy win as long as they get the three points. We are trusting the model and taking the home team to get it done. It's a rivalry game, so emotions will be high, but the data points toward a Montréal victory.

Public fade

The public looks at these two records and thinks it's a coin flip. They see Toronto's 5 draws and think another stalemate is coming. But they're ignoring the home field factor in a rivalry game where Montréal has historically performed well.