NBA Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, May 23, 2026

Analyse

The model sees this as a near pick em but the market has Cleveland favored by two and a half. That gap creates a 16 percent edge on New York plus the points. Cleveland scores 117.8 points per game while allowing 114.4. New York puts up 117.3 and gives up just 109.3. Both teams rank well offensively but New York has the better defense by a decent margin. The head to head tells the real story. Cleveland is just 1-3 against New York this season and has lost by an average of three and a half points in those matchups. The Cavaliers cover only half their home games while the Knicks cover 44 percent on the road. Matchup wise Cleveland's offense ranks fifth against New York's fourth ranked defense. New York's offense ranks eighth against Cleveland's fourteenth ranked defense. The model spread sits at negative 1.8 but books have it at negative 2.5. That difference is where the value lives.

Public fade

Most bettors see Cleveland at home and assume they are the better team. They are ignoring that New York has actually won three of four meetings this season and plays better defense overall.