NBA Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, November 6, 2026

Analyse

Charlotte and Boston don't offer enough value on the main markets, so this is a prop driven play. The spread model makes Charlotte +8.64 against a posted number of 8.5, which leaves no meaningful edge. The total projection is 208.09 against 208.5, also a pass, while Charlotte's 25.3% moneyline win probability doesn't create a playable position. That matters because this isn't a game where the model is forcing a side just to have one. The cleaner angle is Brandon Miller under 21.5 points. His projection is 22.76, but the market price matters more than the raw projection here. The sharpest United States books produce a no vig fair chance of 51.5% on the under, equivalent to fair odds of minus 106. Bovada is offering plus 105, which creates a 5.5% expected value edge. That's the number doing the work. Charlotte enters at 3 and 6, while Boston is 6 and 2, and the Hornets also have six listed players out, including Kon Knueppel and Grant Williams. The injury information adds context, but it doesn't create a reason to invent a side or total play when the model says pass. Miller's under is the disciplined bet because the available price beats the fair market price. Take the number before it moves.

Public fade

The public will likely see Boston's 6 and 2 record and look toward the Celtics or an over built around a strong favorite. But the model gives Charlotte +8.64 and still finds no spread edge, while the total projection sits below the line. The sharper move is fading the assumption that Miller automatically clears his points number in this spot.

Analyse

This matchup looks more attractive for a prop than for a side or total. The model projects New Orleans at +4.28 against a market spread of 3.5, but that difference is not enough to register an edge in the supplied numbers. The total projection is 231.68 versus a line of 230.5, yet that market also carries a zero percent edge. Minnesota's win probability is 38.6%, so there isn't a moneyline position to force either. Jonathan Kuminga under 14.5 points is the available angle. His projection is 15.7, which might make the over look tempting at first glance. That's exactly why the price needs to be the focus. The no vig consensus from the sharpest United States books gives the under a 50.0% fair chance, or fair odds of plus 100. Bovada is offering plus 110, producing a 5.0% expected value edge. The projection alone doesn't make this a strong over. The market price makes the under the better bet. New Orleans is 4 and 4, while Minnesota is 6 and 3. The injury report also lists Yves Missi out for the Pelicans, with Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards out for Minnesota. Those absences are important context, but the provided model does not turn them into a spread or total recommendation. This is a price play, plain and simple. At plus 110, the under clears the fair market threshold.

Public fade

Casual bettors may see a projection above 14.5 and immediately grab Kuminga over. That ignores the actual price available. The sharp consensus says the under is at least a 50% proposition, and plus 110 pays better than fair value, so the public is reacting to the projection while missing the number.

Analyse

This is the tightest game on the board by record, with Memphis and Oklahoma City both entering at 6 and 2. The main market still doesn't offer a bet. Memphis is projected at +2.99 against a posted spread of 4.5, but the spread edge is listed at zero percent. The total model lands at 224.59 against 224.5, which is effectively identical, and Oklahoma City's 41.7% win probability doesn't produce a moneyline play. When the numbers are this close, the correct response is to pass the game markets. Alex Caruso under 2.5 assists is different. The projection is 2.73, but the sharper market consensus gives the under a 49.3% fair chance, with fair odds of plus 103. BetRivers is offering plus 118. That gap creates a 7.5% expected value edge, the strongest listed prop edge of the three games. The injury reports are busy on both sides. Memphis is without Scotty Pippen Jr. and Isaiah Stewart. Oklahoma City has Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Thomas Sorber listed out. Those names provide important lineup context, but the supplied data does not establish a separate team side or total advantage. It does establish a favorable price on Caruso's under. The projection sits slightly above the line, so this isn't a blind under based on a low number. It's a wager where the available plus 118 is materially better than the fair price. That's the angle.

Public fade

The public may see a game with several Oklahoma City absences and assume the remaining players must take on extra playmaking. That narrative isn't enough to justify an over, especially when the market's fair chance still leans toward Caruso's under. BetRivers is simply offering too much on the under compared with the no vig price.