NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, May 21, 2026

Analyse

Carolina comes in with the better regular season record at 53 and 22. Montreal sits at 48 and 24. The model has this one close. It sees Carolina favored by 1.4 goals but the book has them at 1.5. That small difference creates the lean toward Montreal plus 1.5. Carolina scores 3.5 goals per game and allows 2.9. Montreal puts up 3.4 and lets in 3.1. The matchup numbers show Carolina's offense ranks second overall against Montreal's defense at 18th. Montreal's offense sits seventh against a strong Carolina defense that also ranks seventh. Special teams look fairly balanced. Carolina's power play sits at 24.9 percent against Montreal's penalty kill at 78.2 percent. Montreal's power play is at 23.1 percent while Carolina's penalty kill stands at 80.5 percent. Head to head this season hurts Carolina. They are 0 and 2 versus Montreal with an average margin of 2.5 goals against them. ATS trends also point away from the home side. Carolina covers just 25 percent at home while Montreal covers 70 percent on the road. The model sees enough value on the plus money to recommend the lean.

Public fade

The public will likely hammer Carolina as the home favorite with the better record. Most bettors see the 53 and 22 mark and assume the Hurricanes roll. But the head to head and road ATS trends tell a different story. Montreal has covered 70 percent of the time as the road team this season.