Serie A Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, October 23, 2026

Analyse

Torino enters this home match at 3 and 3 and 1, while Monza arrives at 2 and 4 and 1. That gives Torino the better record, but the model isn't treating the gap as meaningful enough to support the posted spread. Its projection is Torino minus 0.25, while the market line is Torino minus 1.5. That's a sizable difference in expectations, yet the official spread edge is still 0 percent and the recommendation is pass. The moneyline tells the same story. Torino's modeled win probability is only 46 percent, which leaves plenty of room for a Monza result or a draw. Soccer gives us that extra outcome, and this matchup doesn't provide enough evidence to ignore it. The total is just as cleanly priced, with the model at 2.5 goals against a 2.5 line and no edge either way. The injury report adds Niccolò Fortini and Ricardo Rodríguez as out for Torino, with Jan Ziólkowski unavailable for Monza. The data doesn't quantify how those absences change the matchup, so I won't pretend they create a side or total advantage. Torino has home field and the better record, but neither factor moves the model toward a wager. This is a spot to watch, not bet.

Public fade

The tempting public angle is backing Torino at home because it has the stronger record and is listed as the favorite. But the model only gives Torino a 46 percent win probability, so laying Torino minus 1.5 asks for far more dominance than the numbers support.