MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, August 20, 2026

Análise

The public is always going to hammer a team like Atlanta, but the data suggests they are walking into a trap on the South Side. Chicago comes into this one having already beaten the Braves twice this season with an average margin of victory of exactly one run. That is a small sample size, sure, but it shows they aren't intimidated by this lineup. The pitching matchup actually tilts toward the Sox when you look at recent performance. Anthony Kay has been solid lately with a 3.30 ERA over his recent starts, which is a significant step up from his 4.01 season average. Compare that to Grant Holmes for the Braves. While his season ERA looks fine at 3.82, he has been getting hit hard lately and carries a 4.43 ERA in his recent outings. Atlanta's defense is ranked sixth in the league, but Chicago's offense is no slouch at seventh overall. The most telling stat here is the against the spread performance at home. The White Sox cover the spread in 64 percent of their games at Guaranteed Rate Field. Atlanta is just a coin flip at 50 percent on the road. We are getting a 26.4 percent edge on the model spread here. I am taking the 1.5 runs and I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago wins this outright as a plus money underdog.

Contra o Público

Bettors see the Braves logo and assume a multi run win is a given. They are ignoring that Grant Holmes is trending in the wrong direction while Anthony Kay is finding his groove.

Análise

This play is all about the discrepancy between a pitcher's reputation and his current reality. Jacob deGrom is starting for Texas, and the books are pricing this like it is 2018. It isn't. deGrom has a 3.95 ERA on the year and has been even worse lately with a 4.48 mark over his recent starts. He is facing a Washington Nationals offense that currently ranks first in the entire league. That is not a typo. The Nats are scoring 5.3 runs per game and they are absolute road warriors when it comes to the spread. Washington covers the run line in 65 percent of their road games. On the other side, Andrew Alvarez has been quietly excellent for the Nationals. He carries a 3.72 season ERA but has dialed it in recently with a 3.29 mark. He is facing a Rangers offense that ranks twenty fifth in the league. You are getting the better offense and the hotter pitcher plus 1.5 runs. The model puts the spread at Washington +0.1, meaning this should essentially be a pickem. Getting that extra cushion with a team that scores this many runs is an easy decision. Texas only covers 48 percent of the time at home, so the value is clearly on the visitors.

Contra o Público

Casual fans see Jacob deGrom and immediately bet the Rangers. They haven't realized that Washington is the highest scoring team in baseball and deGrom is struggling to keep his ERA under four.

Análise

Sometimes you just have to bet against a bad defense. The Oakland Athletics have the worst defense in Major League Baseball, ranking thirtieth out of thirty teams. They are giving up 5.4 runs per game and tonight they are sending Gage Jump to the mound. Jump has been a disaster recently with a 6.24 ERA in his latest starts. That is a recipe for a blowout when you consider Kansas City is currently on a three game winning streak. The real reason to love the Royals here is Randy Dobnak. He has been lights out this year with a 1.73 ERA. He is the definition of a stopper. Kansas City only allows 2.9 runs per game when he is involved, and Oakland's middle of the road offense is going to struggle to find any rhythm. While the Royals offense is ranked twenty second, they should have plenty of opportunities to put up numbers against the league's worst defensive unit. Kansas City has already won 4 of 6 meetings against Oakland this season. The model win probability is sitting at a massive 75.1 percent. Laying the 1.5 runs feels safe here because Oakland simply doesn't have the pitching to keep this close if Dobnak performs to his season average.

Contra o Público

The public sees two teams with losing records and expects a sloppy, close game. They are missing the fact that Dobnak is an elite arm facing a historically bad defense.