UFC Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, July 11, 2026 — UFC 329

Análise

Farid Basharat is the real deal. He comes into this one with a perfect 15 and 0 record and a number 15 ranking in the bantamweight division. John Garza is a tough out at 6 and 1, but he hasn't seen the level of technical striking that Basharat brings to the cage. The model is extremely high on this one. It gives Basharat a 74 percent chance to win. While the market has him as a heavy favorite at minus 625, the model sees a massive 55.8 percent edge. That's rare for a favorite this high. Basharat uses his 71 inch reach to keep opponents at the end of his punches. He doesn't just wing shots. He picks people apart. Garza is unranked and lacks the experience in deep water that Basharat has already started to accumulate. The model expects this to go to a decision 52 percent of the time. Basharat is too smart to get caught in a brawl. He will likely use his superior footwork to stay out of Garza's power lanes. It won't be the flashiest win of the night, but it should be one of the most one sided. Garza needs a miracle shot to win this, and the numbers say that isn't happening. Basharat has shown incredible composure in his previous fights. He averages a high number of significant strikes while absorbing very little. Garza will find it difficult to close the distance without eating three shots for every one he throws. This is a classic case of a ranked fighter being levels above a regional prospect.

Contra o Público

The public sees a massive price on Garza and thinks he's a live dog because of his 6 and 1 record. They're ignoring the fact that Basharat is a ranked technician who has never even been close to losing.

Análise

This is the wildest line on the entire UFC 329 card. Gable Steveson is an Olympic gold medalist, so everyone expects him to just steamroll people. He's sitting at minus 1450. That's an implied probability of over 93 percent. But the model is screaming that this is wrong. It gives Elisha Ellison a 47.4 percent chance to win. That creates a massive 37.8 percent edge on the underdog. Ellison is 5 and 2 and has a significant 78 inch reach. We don't even have a confirmed reach for Steveson in the data, which tells you how early he is in his UFC career. Steveson is only 3 and 0. He's talented, but he's green. In the heavyweight division, one punch changes everything. The model expects a KO or TKO with 71 percent confidence. If this fight stays standing for even a minute, Ellison has a live shot to land something big. Heavyweight fights only go the distance 18 percent of the time according to our numbers. You're telling me a guy with a 47 percent win probability is available at plus 850? That's a math play you have to take every single time. Steveson might be the future, but the public is paying a massive premium for a guy who hasn't been tested yet. Ellison has more cage time and has dealt with the pressure of professional fights longer. Steveson's wrestling is elite, but he has to get inside that 78 inch reach first. If he's lazy with a shot, he's going to sleep. This is the biggest value play on the board.

Contra o Público

Casual bettors are blinded by Steveson's Olympic gold medal. They think his wrestling makes him invincible, but they're forgetting that Ellison has a massive reach advantage and heavyweight power.

Análise

The main event is a total throwback. Max Holloway is the number four ranked contender moving up to welterweight, while Conor McGregor is trying to prove he's still elite. Holloway is a minus 265 favorite, and the model is backing him with a 60.8 percent win probability. Conor has a five inch reach advantage, which is usually a huge factor for him. But Holloway is a volume machine. He doesn't care about getting hit a few times to land ten of his own. This is a five round fight. That favors Holloway significantly because his cardio is legendary. McGregor hasn't shown he can maintain his power or pace into the fourth and fifth rounds in years. Holloway is 27 and 9 for a reason. He's been in the cage with the best of the best and rarely wilts. The model projects this to go the distance 51 percent of the time, with a 56 percent confidence in a decision. McGregor will likely look dangerous in the first ten minutes. But once the fatigue sets in, Holloway will take over. He's the more active striker and the more durable fighter at this stage of their careers. The model sees a 25.7 percent edge on Holloway. Trust the volume and the gas tank here. Holloway's ability to reset and find his rhythm after a tough round is his greatest strength. Conor depends on the early finish. If the Irishman doesn't get the knockout by the end of the second round, he is going to be a stationary target for Holloway's boxing.

Contra o Público

The public always bets on McGregor because of the name value and the reach advantage. They're ignoring that Holloway is a top four ranked fighter while Conor is unranked and hasn't won a five round war in years.