UFC Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, October 31, 2026 — UFC Fight Night

Análise

The market is pricing Rodrigo Sezinando like the safer side, but the model sees Theodor Berggren winning this matchup nearly two thirds of the time. Berggren is listed at plus 154, while Sezinando sits at minus 185, yet the model gives Berggren a 65.9 percent win probability. That is a massive gap, and it makes the underdog the clear value side. The key factor is striking. Berggren owns the longer reach by four inches, 75 inches to 71, and the model specifically identifies his striking advantage as the most important matchup edge. In a three round UFC bout, that length can matter immediately. Berggren should have more room to work at range, while Sezinando has to close distance and make the fight uncomfortable. Every clean exchange favors the fighter the model already expects to have the sharper striking performance. The finishing projection adds another reason to take the shot. The model expects 1.9 rounds and gives KO or TKO the strongest method probability at 64 percent. This isn't a matchup projected to drift into a slow decision. Berggren's path is built around forcing damage early, and the shorter format gives him less time to lose momentum if the fight starts quickly. His record is 8 and 4, compared with Sezinando's 9 and 2, but the price is overreacting to that record difference. Take the underdog.

Contra o Público

Casual bettors see Sezinando's 9 and 2 record and the minus 185 price, then assume the favorite is the safer play. But the public is ignoring the four inch reach gap and the model's major striking advantage for Berggren.

Análise

This is the kind of price that deserves attention before looking at the favorite's name. Luana Santos is listed at minus 325, and she is ranked number seven against Yana Santos at number six. But the model makes Yana the winner 52.2 percent of the time, flipping the market expectation completely. At plus 260, that creates a 24.5 percent moneyline edge on the veteran underdog. The records tell part of the story, with Luana at 11 and 2 and Yana at 17 and 8. The rankings are close, though, and Yana is actually positioned one spot ahead despite the less impressive overall record. That matters because the market is treating this like a wide class gap when the ranking data points to a much tighter contest. Reach is also nearly even, with Yana holding a one inch advantage at 68 inches to 67. Luana isn't bringing a clear physical edge into the cage. The model expects 2.4 rounds and gives decision the strongest method probability at 52 percent. That favors the more experienced fighter in a three round matchup where small moments can decide the scorecards. There is no indication here of a major finishing mismatch, and the 48 percent distance projection reinforces the idea that Yana can stay composed through the full fight. At plus 260, she doesn't need to dominate. She needs to win often enough, and the model says she does that more than half the time.

Contra o Público

The public is likely buying Luana's 11 and 2 record and the heavy minus 325 price. That ignores the nearly identical ranking, Yana's one inch reach advantage, and a model that gives the underdog the actual win probability edge.

Análise

Lucia Szabová is unbeaten at 12 and 0 and priced at minus 650, so it's easy to understand why the market has made her such a heavy favorite. But the model sees a much more competitive fight. Szabová's win probability is 60 percent, while Tainara Lisboa gets a 40 percent chance. That difference is nowhere near large enough to justify a price this steep, and Lisboa's recommended number is plus 500. The value is simple. A fighter with a 40 percent model probability should not be priced as though she almost never wins. Lisboa's record is 7 and 4, but the model is clearly resisting the undefeated narrative around Szabová. No ranking data or reach advantage is provided for Szabová, while Lisboa is listed at 67 inches. That missing reach information doesn't create a confirmed edge for either side, but it also gives the favorite no documented physical advantage to separate herself from the underdog. The fight is projected to last 2.5 rounds, with a 55 percent chance of going the distance. Decision is the leading method at 60 percent. That is important because it gives Lisboa a realistic route that doesn't require a sudden upset finish. She can stay in the fight, force Szabová to win every round, and let the scorecards decide the result. The confidence is lower than the other two selections at 73 percent, but the price makes this a worthwhile underdog stab. At plus 500, Lisboa only needs the model's 40 percent chance to become reality once.

Contra o Público

The public is treating Szabová's perfect 12 and 0 record as proof that this should be an automatic win. The model sees a 40 percent chance for Lisboa, and that is far too high for a plus 500 underdog to ignore.