MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, July 17, 2026

Analys

This matchup between the Yankees and Dodgers looks like a heavyweight fight, but the starting pitching tells a different story. Gerrit Cole has been shaky with a 4.04 ERA on the season, and his recent form is even worse at 5.48. On the other side, Roki Sasaki has been getting absolutely shelled. He carries a 5.33 season ERA, but his recent starts have been a disaster, posting a massive 8.88 ERA over his last few outings. When you have two offenses ranked in the top eight facing pitchers who are currently struggling to find the strike zone, runs are going to come in bunches. The Dodgers offense ranks third in the league and scores 5.2 runs per game. While their defense is technically ranked first, they are currently allowing 5.7 runs per game because the pitching staff is in a tailspin. The Yankees are also finding their rhythm with a four game winning streak and an offense that ranks eighth overall. The model puts this total at 9.5, which gives us a solid edge against the posted line of 9. Both teams have the power to clear this total by the fifth inning if these starters don't settle in early. I am also leaning toward the Yankees at +1.5 because they have been the more consistent team lately, but the Over is the strongest play here.

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The public usually sees big names like Cole and Sasaki and hammers the under. They are ignoring the fact that Sasaki is currently pitching like he belongs in Triple A with that 8.88 recent ERA.

Analys

The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now, riding a nine game winning streak. A huge reason for that success is Jake Bennett. He has been lights out with a 2.64 season ERA, and he has lowered that to a ridiculous 1.43 in his recent starts. He is facing a Tampa Bay offense that is middle of the pack, ranking 14th in the league. On the other side, Griffin Jax has been very reliable for the Rays, posting a 3.47 ERA and keeping it steady at 3.12 recently. When you look at the defensive rankings, Boston comes in at third in the league. They are only allowing 2.6 runs per game during this stretch, which makes an 8.5 total look very inflated. While the Rays have dominated the head to head matchup this season, the current form of these two pitchers suggests a low scoring grind. The model expects about 8.2 runs, and with Bennett pitching at an elite level, it is hard to see Tampa Bay putting up a big number. Boston is also a lean at +1.5 because of their incredible momentum, but the pitching matchup is the primary reason to back the under. Both starters are in peak form and should dominate the early innings.

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Casual bettors love to bet the over when a team is on a long winning streak like Boston. They expect the bats to stay hot, but they are overlooking how dominant Jake Bennett has been on the mound.

Analys

The Washington Nationals might not be a playoff lock, but they have the number one ranked offense in the league, scoring 5.3 runs per game. Today they get to face an Oakland defense that is ranked 29th out of 30 teams. Gage Jump starts for the Athletics, and while his 3.51 season ERA looks decent, his recent form has slipped to 4.06. He is going to have a very difficult time navigating a Nationals lineup that has been crushing lefties all year. Oakland is in a complete freefall, losing 9 of their last 10 games. Their pitching staff is giving up runs in bunches, and Washington is the perfect team to take advantage of that. Cade Cavalli starts for the Nats and has been solid with a 3.83 ERA, but the model still expects Oakland to chip in enough runs to push this over the total of 10. Washington is also a fantastic bet at +1.5 because they cover the spread at a 72 percent clip on the road, which is one of the best marks in the league. Oakland simply cannot be trusted to win by multiple runs, or win at all, given their 1 and 9 record over the last ten games. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one.

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People see the Athletics at home and assume they can keep it close, but the data says otherwise. Washington's offense is legit, and Oakland's 29th ranked defense is a recipe for a blowout.