MLS Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, August 1, 2026

Analys

Inter Miami is currently the gold standard for offense in this league. They sit at first in the rankings and for good reason. Averaging 2.5 goals every time they take the pitch is a massive number. Columbus has a defense that is basically the definition of average. They rank sixteenth in the league and allow about 1.5 goals per game. When you put the best offense against a middle of the road defense, you get fireworks. The model is screaming about the total here. We have a line at 3.5 but the model sees 4.3 goals coming. That is a massive 22 percent edge. Miami also allows 1.8 goals per game, so they are far from a defensive powerhouse. This creates a perfect storm for a high scoring affair. The Crew scores 1.4 goals per game which is enough to contribute to this total. Miami is 11, 2, and 4 on the season. They know how to win and they know how to score. Betting them on the moneyline at minus 175 carries a 13.2 percent edge. If you want to be more aggressive, taking them at minus 1 on the spread is also a strong play. They cover 43 percent of the time at home which is better than the road coverage for Columbus. Trust the offense to carry the day.

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The public is often hesitant to lay a heavy price on a moneyline in soccer because of the draw risk. However, Miami has a 76.9 percent win probability according to the model, making the minus 175 price a steal.

Analys

This game features two teams that are currently stuck in the basement of the league. Philadelphia has a record of 3, 10, and 4 while Atlanta sits at 3, 11, and 3. When you look at the offensive rankings, it is a bit of a disaster. Atlanta is the worst offense in the league, ranking thirtieth out of thirty teams. Philadelphia is not much better at twenty sixth. Because of this, the model is looking directly at the under. The line is set at 2.5 but the model thinks we only see 2 goals total. That 20 percent edge is one of the best on the entire Saturday slate. Atlanta only scores 1 goal per game on average. It is hard to imagine them suddenly finding their rhythm on the road against a Union team that is desperate for a result. Philadelphia allows 1.8 goals per game, but when the opponent cannot find the back of the net, those defensive lapses matter less. The Union are favored at minus 159 on the moneyline and the model likes that with a 10.3 percent edge. Even though Atlanta won the previous meeting this season, playing at home should give Philadelphia the slight boost they need to secure three points. Just do not expect a highlight reel of goals in this one. It will likely be a gritty, low scoring battle.

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Casual bettors love betting the over in MLS because the league has a reputation for high scoring games. They see two bad defenses and assume goals, but they are ignoring two offenses that cannot buy a goal right now.

Analys

The Red Bulls are coming into this one as slight favorites and the data suggests they should be even heavier favorites. The spread is currently sitting at minus 0.25 but the model thinks it should be closer to minus 0.7. That gives us a 10.3 percent edge on Red Bull New York. Orlando City has been a nightmare for bettors when they travel. They only cover the spread 29 percent of the time on the road. That is a number you have to pay attention to. On the other side, the Red Bulls cover half of their home games. When you look at the defensive numbers, both of these teams are struggling. Red Bull New York allows 2.2 goals per game and Orlando is even worse at 2.6. Because both defenses are so leaky, the over 3.75 is a very interesting play with an 8.6 percent edge. The model projects 4.1 goals for this matchup. Red Bull New York already beat Orlando once this season with a 1.0 average margin. They have the blueprint to win this game and Orlando has not shown the ability to tighten up their back line. Scoring 1.5 goals per game should be enough for the Red Bulls to get the win if Orlando continues to give up goals at such a high rate. Take the home team and expect some late game drama.

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The public sees two teams with similar records and assumes this is a toss up. They are overlooking just how poorly Orlando performs away from home and the fact that the Red Bulls already have a win over them this year.