MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, May 28, 2026

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The model has the spread at 0.7 but the book is sitting at 1.5. That gap creates the 11.9 percent edge on Minnesota plus the run. Chicago is allowing 5.8 runs per game while scoring just 4.5. Minnesota scores 4.6 and gives up 4.0. The pitching matchup tilts toward the Twins too. Davis Martin is at 5.47 on the year and his last few starts have been closer to 8.07. Kendry Rojas gets the start for Minnesota. Recent form backs the lean. Minnesota is 7 and 3 in their last 10 while the White Sox sit at 5 and 5. The Twins have also been the better road team when it comes to covering. They are hitting at a 50 percent clip ATS away from home. Chicago's offense ranks 12th against Minnesota's 18th ranked defense. Minnesota's offense sits 10th against a Chicago defense ranked 24th overall. The total is the stronger play here though. The model projects 8.6 runs against a posted 7.5. That is a 14 percent edge to the over. Both offenses have enough pop to push this one well past the posted number.

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The public sees Chicago at home and assumes the White Sox get the benefit of the doubt. But the numbers tell a different story. Minnesota has been the sharper team lately and Chicago's pitching is in rough shape.

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Atlanta is the better team on paper and the model agrees. The spread projection sits at 1.3 while the book has it at 1.5. That creates the 12.9 percent edge on the Braves plus the run. Boston is scoring just 3.8 runs per game and allowing 3.8. Atlanta is putting up 5.3 while holding opponents to 2.1. The pitching matchup heavily favors the visitors. Chris Sale is at 1.89 on the year and his recent starts have been even better at 1.09. Boston's offense ranks 29th against Atlanta's second ranked defense. That is a brutal spot for the Red Sox. Atlanta's offense sits third against a Boston defense ranked 10th. The head to head numbers back it up too. Boston is 1 and 3 against Atlanta this season with an average margin of 1.8 runs. Atlanta has also been sharp on the road covering 71 percent of the time. The total has a smaller edge but the model still likes the over. It projects 8.3 runs against a posted 8. The Braves have the offense to push this one over.

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The public is laying the 1.5 with Atlanta because they are the better team. But the model thinks that line is too high. Boston's poor home covering rate of 31 percent also gets overlooked by most bettors.

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Pittsburgh is getting 2.1 runs of value on the spread and the model likes them to cover the 1.5. That creates the 6.7 percent edge. Pittsburgh is scoring 4.9 runs per game while allowing just 3.5. Chicago is scoring 4.6 and allowing 4.7. The pitching matchup heavily favors the Pirates. Paul Skenes is at 3.00 on the year while Colin Rea sits at 4.83 with recent starts closer to 5.29. Recent form is lopsided. Pittsburgh is 5 and 5 in their last 10 while Chicago is 0 and 10. Pittsburgh also owns the head to head edge this season at 3 and 1 with an average margin of 1.8 runs. The matchup numbers support the lean. Pittsburgh's offense ranks fifth against Chicago's 17th ranked defense. Chicago's offense sits ninth against a Pittsburgh defense ranked 12th. The total is the strongest play in this game. The model projects 9.4 runs against a posted 8.5. That is an 11 percent edge to the over. Pittsburgh also has the 2 percent edge on the moneyline at 56.7 percent win probability.

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The public sees two teams with the same record and assumes this is close to even. But Chicago's 0 and 10 skid is getting ignored and Pittsburgh's pitching advantage is being overlooked.