MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, July 12, 2026

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The model is screaming about this total and it is not hard to see why. Pittsburgh sends Paul Skenes to the mound, and while he has the pedigree, his recent form is a major red flag. He is carrying a 5.67 ERA over his last few starts. That is a massive jump from his season average. On the other side, Robert Gasser is not exactly shutting people down with a 4.15 ERA. The Milwaukee Brewers offense ranks fourth in the league and they are facing a Pittsburgh Pirates defense that sits at twenty three out of thirty. That is a recipe for runs. But the Pirates can hit too. They have the third best offense in baseball right now. Even though Milwaukee has the top defense in the league, the Pirates have already taken four of five from the Brewers this season. They know how to score on this staff. The model has this total projected at 9 runs while the book is sitting at 8. That 12.6 percent edge is one of the strongest on the board today. Milwaukee has been hot lately, going 7 and 3 in their last ten games. They are putting up numbers. When you have two starters who are giving up plenty of hard contact and two offenses in the top five, you do not overthink it. Take the over and watch the scoreboard light up. It should be a high scoring affair from the first inning.

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Casual bettors see Paul Skenes on the mound and automatically think under. They are ignoring his recent struggles and the fact that both of these offenses are elite. The model shows the public is way too high on the pitching in this matchup.

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We are looking at two teams that have struggled to find consistency, but the value here is clearly on the Colorado Rockies getting runs. San Francisco is favored, but they are sending Trevor McDonald to the hill. His recent 8.35 ERA is basically a green light for opposing hitters. Colorado might be the basement of the division, but their offense actually ranks ninth in the league. They can put up crooked numbers when they get a look at a struggling starter. The Rockies have also won six of their last ten games, showing much better form than the Giants who have dropped six of their last ten. Michael Lorenzen starts for Colorado, and while his season long 6.46 ERA looks ugly, he has been better lately with a 4.61 mark. The San Francisco Giants offense is stuck in the bottom third of the league at twenty fourth overall. They are not exactly built to blow teams out. The model projects this as a half run game, yet the books are giving us 1.5 runs with the Rockies. Colorado has covered the spread in 56 percent of their road games this year. They play tough away from home. San Francisco is only covering at a 48 percent clip at home. Everything points to this being a tight game that the Rockies could easily win outright. Take the runs and run to the window.

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The public usually just bets against the Rockies on the road because they are a bad team. But the Giants are just as shaky right now. Laying 1.5 runs with a starter who has an ERA over eight is a losing strategy.

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This is a play against Cristian Javier as much as it is a play on the Texas Rangers. Javier has been a disaster this season with a 10.22 ERA. It has somehow been even worse lately as he is sporting an 11.05 ERA in his recent outings. The Houston Astros are allowing 8.3 runs per game when he is involved. That is an impossible number to overcome for any offense. Texas has a middle of the pack offense, but they should look like world beaters against this version of Javier. The Rangers are on a two game winning streak and have played much better baseball over the last ten games compared to Houston. MacKenzie Gore gets the ball for Texas, and while his 4.72 ERA is not elite, it is miles ahead of what the Astros are trotting out. Houston has actually won the season series so far, but the current form of these two rotations tells a different story. The model sees a 2.3 run margin for the Rangers, giving us a solid 8 percent edge on the minus 1.5 spread. Texas is at home where they are fighting to stay above five hundred. Houston is spiraling right now, and their defense is ranked twenty sixth in the league. Expect the Rangers to jump on Javier early and never look back. It should be a comfortable win for the home team. They have every advantage in this matchup.

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Public money often follows the Astros because of their name value. But Cristian Javier is currently the most vulnerable pitcher in the league. People are betting on the jersey and not the actual performance.