College Basketball Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, November 5, 2026

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Seton Hall opened the season with a 1 and 0 record, and the model sees a major gap between the Pirates and Long Island University. The final projection makes Seton Hall a 4.9 point favorite, but that spread number doesn't tell the entire story. The win probability sits at 90.2 percent, which is why the model leans toward the moneyline instead of forcing a spread position that isn't provided here. The Pirates are scoring 66.0 points per game while allowing 42.0. Long Island University is scoring 60.0 points per game, and the supplied defensive figure is 0.0. Seton Hall also owns the rest advantage, with two days off compared with one for the Sharks. That matters early in the season, especially when the home team already has the stronger scoring profile. The matchup data gives Seton Hall's offense a difficult test against a Long Island University defense ranked 60th out of 79, so this probably isn't a spot to expect an offensive explosion. But the other side is less encouraging for the visitors. Long Island University's offense ranks 266th out of 79 in the supplied data, while Seton Hall's defense ranks 175th. The Pirates should control the game with steadier possessions and better overall balance. At home, with the rest edge and a 90.2 percent win projection, Seton Hall is the clear side.

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Casual bettors may avoid Seton Hall because the projected spread is only 4.9 points despite the heavy moneyline price. That's the wrong takeaway. The model is saying the Pirates are very likely to win, not that this is a comfortable spread bet.

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Vanderbilt and Wake Forest both enter at 1 and 0, but the underlying numbers point to a much wider gap than the records show. The model makes Vanderbilt a 21.5 point favorite, up from a baseline projection of 16.9. That adjustment is important because it confirms the model isn't simply reacting to a small early season difference. It sees Vanderbilt as the stronger team across the matchup. Vanderbilt is scoring 93.0 points per game and allowing 47.0. Wake Forest is scoring 83.0 while allowing 62.0. The Commodores have been better on both ends of the floor, and their offensive ranking of 73rd out of 79 lines up perfectly against a Wake Forest defense ranked 215th. That is the matchup to watch. Vanderbilt's scoring attack is facing a defense that has not rated well in the supplied data. Wake Forest's offense ranks 130th, which is respectable, but Vanderbilt's defense ranks 181st. The Demon Deacons may find some offense, yet the model still gives Vanderbilt a 94.9 percent chance to win. Home court adds another layer for the Commodores, while both teams have played once and have the same record. This isn't about a complicated tournament angle or a late season spot. It's a straightforward early season mismatch, with Vanderbilt's scoring edge and defensive results creating too much separation. The moneyline is expensive, but the projection is decisive.

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The public may see two undefeated teams and assume Wake Forest can keep this close. That ignores the scoring and defensive gap. Vanderbilt has the better offense, the better points allowed figure, and the home court edge.

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Penn State is the strongest spread position among these three games. The market has the Nittany Lions laying 11.5 points, while the final model spread makes them 22.6 point favorites. That's an enormous gap between the number on the board and the number generated by the model. The baseline projection was already 17.1 points, so the final figure isn't built on one aggressive adjustment. Penn State is scoring 97.0 points per game and allowing 57.0. Chattanooga is scoring 70.0 and allowing 84.0. Those numbers create a clear path to a comfortable home win. Penn State's offense ranks 48th out of 79 and gets a favorable matchup against a Chattanooga defense ranked 275th. That is the largest matchup advantage in this group, and it should give the Nittany Lions plenty of chances to build separation. Chattanooga's offense ranks 217th, while Penn State's defense ranks 197th. The defensive ranking isn't dominant, but the Nittany Lions don't need to shut down the Mocs to cover this number. If Penn State approaches its 97.0 point scoring average and Chattanooga continues to give up 84.0, the spread becomes manageable quickly. Home court also supports the favorite, and the model gives Penn State a 91.0 percent win probability. The moneyline is too expensive to offer much value, but the spread is different. At 11.5, Penn State has room to win comfortably without needing the full 22.6 point projection.

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Casual bettors may see 11.5 and assume the number is inflated because Penn State is a heavy favorite. The model says the opposite. The market is sitting more than 11 points below the final projection, and Chattanooga's 275th ranked defense is the reason.