UFC Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, October 24, 2026 — UFC 333

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The market is treating Asaf Chopurov like a near certainty at minus 600, but the model sees this bantamweight matchup completely differently. Chopurov is undefeated at 11 and 0, which explains the heavy price, yet the projection gives him only a 36.8 percent chance to win. Colby Thicknesse lands at 63.2 percent, creating a massive gap between the numbers and the betting market. The key factor is Thicknesse's striking advantage. That matters in a three round fight, especially when the model expects the bout to last 2.7 rounds and gives it a 68 percent chance of going the distance. This isn't a matchup where the underdog needs to find one wild moment early. The projection says Thicknesse can win minutes, manage the fight, and make his technical edge count over the full 15 minutes. There is also no meaningful reach data available for Chopurov, while Thicknesse is listed at 69 inches. That makes it impossible to claim a clear physical advantage for the favorite. Chopurov's perfect record is real, but it has pushed this price far beyond what the model believes his win probability deserves. The recommended price is plus 430, even though the listed number is plus 440, and either price still offers outstanding value. The most likely method is a decision, carrying 74 percent confidence. This is the best bet on the card.

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Casual bettors see an undefeated fighter at minus 600 and assume the result is already decided. They're paying for Chopurov's record instead of questioning whether his striking can handle Thicknesse over three rounds.

Аналіз

This is the classic prospect against veteran pricing trap. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is undefeated at 10 and 0 and has been installed at minus 550, but the model gives him only a 53.5 percent win probability. Nikita Krylov is listed at plus 410 despite a projection of 46.5 percent, which creates a 26.9 percent moneyline edge on the veteran. Krylov's record is 31 and 12, and he's ranked number 15. Those are not cosmetic details. He has far more experience in high level UFC competition than the unranked Yakhyaev, and the model specifically identifies Krylov's striking as the key matchup advantage. The reach numbers are nearly identical, with Yakhyaev at 78 inches and Krylov at 77, so the favorite doesn't have a clear length edge to exploit. The fight is expected to last about two rounds, with just a 21 percent chance of going the distance. That points toward a volatile light heavyweight matchup where one clean exchange can decide the night. The model's most likely method is KO or TKO, though confidence in that exact outcome is only 39 percent. That uncertainty actually helps the underdog, because Krylov doesn't need to dominate every phase. He needs to survive the early danger and make his striking experience matter. At plus 410, the price is doing too much work for the favorite and not enough for a ranked veteran with a clear technical edge.

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The public is buying Yakhyaev's perfect record and ignoring that he's unranked against the number 15 fighter in the division. This price assumes the unbeaten record automatically translates against a veteran who has a striking advantage and 43 more professional fights.

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Nicolle Caliari is being priced like a clear second best fighter, but the model sees an almost even matchup. Caliari has a 49.3 percent win probability, while Iasmin Lucindo is at 50.7 percent. That is nowhere close to the market's pricing, which has Lucindo at minus 410 and Caliari at plus 320. The model makes Caliari the value side by a wide margin. The matchup presents a real contrast. Lucindo is ranked number seven and owns an 18 and 6 record, while Caliari is unranked at 9 and 4. Those facts explain why the favorite is attracting attention, but they don't erase Caliari's striking advantage. Lucindo does have a four inch reach edge, standing at 66 inches compared with Caliari's 62, and that could make the opening minutes difficult. Still, the model believes Caliari's ability to create offense on the feet keeps this fight essentially even. This is a three round women's strawweight bout projected to last 2.3 rounds, with a 33 percent chance of going the distance. Submission is the leading method with 44 percent confidence, so Caliari's route isn't limited to winning a long striking battle. She can use her striking threat to create opportunities and capitalize if Lucindo overcommits. The ranking gap is doing most of the work in the betting price, while the actual win probabilities say this should be close to a pick'em. Getting plus 320 on a fighter the model gives nearly a 50 percent chance to win is simply too much value to pass up.

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The public is leaning on Lucindo's number seven ranking, stronger record, and four inch reach advantage. That narrative misses the model's main point: Caliari has the striking edge and is almost exactly as likely to win.