NBA Most Improved Player Odds 2026-27: Brandon Miller Favored

Brandon Miller was the betting favorite for the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player award at +800, per BetMGM's board published Sept. 23. Sportsbook Review's Oct. 7 update, which does not name a book, lists Miller and Spurs guard Dylan Harper at +1200. The NBA Most Improved Player odds market is wide open, and recent winners have come from deep on the board.

NBA Most Improved Player Odds 2026-27: The Board

The current snapshot from Sportsbook Review (Oct. 7) lists Harper and Miller at +1200, Celtics guard Payton Pritchard at +1500 and Bucks center Kel'el Ware at +1800. Raptors forward Collin Murray-Boyles and Peyton Watson, listed by SBR as a free-agent guard, are tied at +2500. SBR does not name the book behind that line.

For named-book prices, here is how the market opened at FanDuel on July 21, per Sportsbook Review, next to BetMGM's Sept. 23 favorite price:

| Player | FanDuel open, July 21 (via SBR) | BetMGM, Sept. 23 (via BetMGM) | |-|-|-| | Brandon Miller | +800 | +800 | | Payton Pritchard | +1000 | Not published | | Dylan Harper | +1200 | Not published | | Kel'el Ware | +1600 | Not published | | Peyton Watson | +2000 | Not published | | Ty Jerome | +2000 | Not published | | Collin Murray-Boyles | +2500 | Not published | | Stephon Castle | +3000 | Not published | | Matas Buzelis | Not listed | 35/1 |

Implied probability is 100 divided by (odds plus 100), so Miller's +800 works out to about 11.1%, and SBR's unnamed-book +1200 works out to about 7.7%. Sports Betting Dime's consensus tracker, updated Sept. 23, also shows the market's early lean: Miller opened Aug. 10 at +1000 as a narrow favorite over Harper (+1100) and Pritchard (+1250).

Why Brandon Miller Is the Favorite

Miller's case is about role. Charlotte traded LaMelo Ball to Minnesota this offseason, per ESPN, and BetMGM's preview said Miller makes a lot of sense as the favorite after that trade. Covers noted Sept. 29 that with Kon Knueppel's hamstring strain to start the season and Ball gone, Miller could carry very high usage early.

Charlotte is also thin entering the season. Knueppel is out for at least the entire preseason with a left hamstring injury and will be reevaluated during the first week of the regular season, per ESPN. ESPN reported Oct. 7 that guard Coby White, who signed a three-year, $74 million deal this summer, will miss the rest of the preseason with a left calf strain.

Miller's own health is the counterweight. He had surgery May 6 to address instability in his left shoulder, per Yahoo Sports, and said at the Sept. 28 media day that he had been cleared for "full contact" for about three weeks. President of basketball operations Jeff Peterson said the club expects him to be a full participant and will monitor him through camp. Last season, Miller averaged 20.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 65 games, shooting 43.5% from the field and 38.3% from three.

The Rest of the Contenders

Dylan Harper, Spurs (+1200 co-favorite on SBR's Oct. 7 board, no book named). Covers flagged the problem: the award almost never goes to a second-year player, and Monta Ellis in 2006-07 was the last one to win it. Harper averaged 11.8 points per game last season in a crowded backcourt with Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox, per Covers.

Stephon Castle, Spurs (+3000 at FanDuel's July open, per SBR). ESPN's Summer Forecast panel, published Aug. 26, actually picked Castle first with 34 points, ahead of Cason Wallace (32), Harper (21), Amen Thompson (20) and Ware (17). ESPN's write-up noted Castle's turnovers rose to 3.2 last season and said he has a chance if he corrects those miscues and improves as a shooter.

Payton Pritchard, Celtics (+1500 on SBR's Oct. 7 board, no book named). Per SBR, Pritchard opened at +1000 at FanDuel and is third on the current board.

Kel'el Ware, Bucks (+1800 on SBR's Oct. 7 board, no book named). Ware faces a hard trend. Per Covers, no true center has won the award since Jermaine O'Neal in 2002.

Matas Buzelis, Bulls (35/1 at BetMGM). Per BetMGM's preview, Buzelis might be worth a look for value. He averaged 16.3 points and 5.8 rebounds in his second season, and BetMGM wrote there is a good chance he could be Chicago's top option this year.

Betting Angles and Value

BetMGM's preview says few markets are as volatile as this one. Nickeil Alexander-Walker opened last season as a 200/1 long shot and closed as a -1250 favorite, per BetMGM, which counted seven different players who held favorite status over the course of that season. Dyson Daniels won the year before after entering as a +6600 long shot, per the same preview. Both did it in their first season with Atlanta after changing teams.

That history argues against paying a short price in October. Per Covers, nine of the past 10 winners averaged 20.0 points per game or more, a bar Harper would need a big jump to reach. Buzelis at 35/1 fits the expanded-role template at a price that leaves room for error.

For nightly reads once the season tips, StatSniper's AI sports picks hub and the NBA daily picks page track every game. We also broke down a related bench market in our NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds piece, where Harper also features.

What to Watch Next

The Hornets' first-week injury reevaluation for Knueppel are the most direct lever on Miller's usage. If Knueppel and White miss early games, Miller could open the season as Charlotte's clear first option. Also watch the Oct. 19 rookie-scale extension deadline: Miller is in the final year of his rookie deal, and Peterson said in July he had talked with Miller's camp about an extension, per Yahoo Sports.

In San Antonio, watch how minutes split between Harper, Castle and Fox. ESPN's report on Knueppel's hamstring injury has the team's stated timeline. Chad AI tracks futures like this one alongside nightly game picks inside the Chad app on StatSniper.

FAQ

Who is favored to win NBA Most Improved Player in 2026-27? Brandon Miller was the favorite at +800, per BetMGM on Sept. 23. Sportsbook Review's board (no book named), updated Oct. 7, lists Miller and Dylan Harper as +1200 co-favorites.

Who won NBA Most Improved Player last season? Nickeil Alexander-Walker won it in 2025-26 after averaging a career-best 20.8 points per game in his first season with the Hawks. He opened the season as a 200/1 long shot, per BetMGM.

Is Brandon Miller healthy for the 2026-27 season? Miller had left shoulder surgery May 6 and said Sept. 28 that he had been cleared for full contact for about three weeks. President of basketball operations Jeff Peterson said the team expects him to be a full participant.

Has a second-year player ever won Most Improved Player? Yes, but rarely. Per Covers, Monta Ellis in 2006-07 was the last second-year player to win the award.

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