EPL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, May 18, 2026

Analysis

Arsenal come in at 24 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses on the season. They score 1.9 goals per game and allow just 0.7. Burnley sits at 4 wins, 23 draws, and 9 losses. They score 1.0 goal per game and allow 2.0. The model sees a 2.2 goal spread between these teams, which explains why the books have moved the line to 2.5. Arsenal ranks second in offense while Burnley ranks last in defense. Burnley ranks 19th in offense against Arsenal defense that leads the league. This matchup screams mismatch. The two teams met earlier this season and Arsenal won by two goals. That H2H result fits the pattern we are seeing here. Arsenal should control this game from start to finish. They get plenty of rest leading into this one. Burnley has nothing to play for and that shows in their form. The draw probability is low given how dominant Arsenal has been at home. Look for them to push the pace and finish strong.

Public Fade

Public bettors are staying away from big spreads on a Monday night. They worry about a flat performance or a surprise draw. But the numbers say Arsenal is simply too strong for this Burnley team. The model spread lands at 2.2 goals and the book has it at 2.5, which creates a solid edge.