NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, May 18, 2026

Analysis

Buffalo enters this one with a strong 50-23 record but the model sees a much tighter contest than the spread suggests. The model spread sits at -1.3 yet the line is posted at -1.5. That difference creates the 6.1% edge on Montreal plus 1.5. Buffalo scores 3.5 goals per game and allows 2.9. Montreal matches up well here with 3.4 goals scored and 3.1 allowed. The matchup data backs it up. Buffalo offense ranks fifth against Montreal defense at 18th. Montreal offense sits seventh against Buffalo defense at twelfth. Head to head this season, Buffalo leads 2-2 with an average margin of just 0.5 goals. Buffalo covers just 36% of the time at home. Montreal covers 69% on the road. Noah Ostlund is out for Buffalo and that gives Montreal a 1.2 point net injury edge. The combination of weak home ATS trends and the injury impact makes Montreal plus 1.5 the right side.

Public Fade

Public bettors see a strong Buffalo home team and jump on the Sabres. They ignore the fact that Buffalo covers just 36% at home and Montreal covers 69% on the road. The injury to Noah Ostlund shifts the balance toward Montreal.