NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Analysis

Colorado has the offense to push this game and the defense to keep Vegas from keeping up. They score 3.6 goals per game while allowing just 2.4. Vegas puts up 3.2 goals but gives up 3.0. That gap shows up in the rankings too. Colorado ranks first in offense against a Vegas defense that sits thirteenth. Their own defense ranks third against a Vegas offense that checks in thirteenth. Special teams add another layer. Colorado's power play sits at 17.1 percent against Vegas penalty kill at 81.4 percent. Vegas gets more opportunities on the power play at 24.6 percent but Colorado kills 84.6 percent of them. The head to head this season tells a story. Colorado is 2 to 1 against Vegas with an average margin of 0.7 goals. The model sees a spread of negative 1.4 and that aligns with the posted line at negative 1.5. Colorado covers just 33 percent at home while Vegas covers 54 percent on the road. That trend might give some pause but the underlying numbers favor Colorado. The model puts their win probability at 63.4 percent and the lean on the spread feels right. Vegas simply does not match up well enough with this Colorado team.

Public Fade

The public sees Vegas as a road underdog and might be betting them live. But the model sees a bigger gap than the line reflects. Colorado's offensive and defensive rankings are too strong to ignore.