EPL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, May 24, 2026

Analyse

Burnley sits at 4 wins, 24 draws and 9 losses while Wolves are at 3 wins, 24 draws and 10 losses. The model sees almost no difference in quality here yet the spread sits at pick em. Burnley scores one goal per game and allows two while Wolves score 0.7 and allow 1.8. That scoring gap is tiny but Burnley holds the home edge and the model only gives Wolves a 30 percent chance to win outright. Burnley already beat Wolves once this season by an average margin of one goal. The model spread sits at minus 0.1 which lands right at the posted line of zero. That four percent edge comes from the simple fact that Burnley should be favored at home against a Wolves attack that manages less than a goal per game on the road. Wolves have shown zero ability to create chances away from home this year. Burnley may not be lighting up scoreboards either but they are not giving up much either. At even money this looks like the side that should be getting the slight nod.

À contre-courant du public

Most bettors see two teams near the bottom and assume the game stays close to a draw. They miss that Burnley has already handled Wolves this season and holds home field in a matchup where the model barely separates the sides.

Analyse

Tottenham sits at 9 wins, 17 draws and 11 losses while Everton is at 13 wins, 14 draws and 10 losses. The model gives Tottenham a 65.2 percent chance to win outright which creates a 12.9 percent edge on the moneyline. Tottenham scores 1.3 goals per game and allows 1.5 while Everton scores 1.3 and allows 1.3. The numbers look close on paper but the model sees a real gap. Tottenham ranks 12th in offense against Everton's 7th ranked defense. Everton ranks 14th in offense against Tottenham's 17th ranked defense. That mismatch favors the home side. Tottenham already handled Everton once this season by an average margin of three goals. The spread model sits at minus 0.4 which is close to the posted line of minus 0.5. The real value sits on the moneyline where the market has not adjusted enough for Tottenham's home edge and Everton's inability to create on the road. At minus 110 this is a bet that should be bet.

À contre-courant du public

Bettors see Everton's slightly better record and assume the sides are close to even. They ignore that Tottenham has already dominated this matchup once and holds a clear home advantage that the model quantifies at over 12 percent edge.

Analyse

Fulham sits at 14 wins, 16 draws and 7 losses while Newcastle is at 14 wins, 16 draws and 7 losses. The model gives Fulham a 50.2 percent chance to win which creates an 11.7 percent edge on the moneyline but the spread sits dead even at zero. Fulham scores 1.2 goals per game and allows 1.4 while Newcastle scores 1.4 and allows 1.4. Fulham ranks 15th in offense against Newcastle's 15th ranked defense. Newcastle ranks 9th in offense against Fulham's 11th ranked defense. The matchup numbers are close across the board. Newcastle already beat Fulham once this season by an average margin of one goal. The model spread sits at minus 0.1 which lands right at the posted line of zero. The total model sits at 3.5 which matches the posted line exactly. Both teams are nearly identical in form and the model sees almost no separation. This one is a true coin flip and the numbers confirm it.

À contre-courant du public

The public sees two teams with identical records and assumes value exists somewhere. The model confirms the sides are basically even which means no real edge on either side or the total.