EPL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, October 23, 2026

Analyse

Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest give us a matchup where the numbers disagree with the market, but not strongly enough to create a bet. Ipswich enters with a 3 4 0 record, while Nottingham Forest sits at 1 4 2. That gives the home side the better form record, yet the market still lists Ipswich at a spread of minus 1.5. The model sees something very different, projecting Ipswich at plus 0.25. That is a major gap in the handicap, but the calculated edge is still zero percent, so there isn't enough support to turn the disagreement into a wager. The total creates another interesting contradiction. The model projects 2.75 goals against a line of 2.5, which points toward a slightly more open game. Still, that market also carries a zero percent edge and a pass recommendation. Without supplied goals per game figures, league positions, or recent scoring details, there isn't a reliable statistical reason to push the total. Ipswich does have the stronger listed record, and home field matters here, but Nottingham Forest's absences of Igor Jesus and Nicolò Savona add uncertainty rather than a confirmed betting advantage. The model gives Ipswich a 31.1% win probability, which also leaves plenty of room for a draw or an away result. No forced action. Pass.

À contre-courant du public

Casual bettors may see Ipswich's better record and immediately back the home side. But the model gives Ipswich only a 31.1% win probability and finds no edge in the spread, total, or moneyline. The public can pick a winner here, but there is no reason to pay for one.