MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, June 18, 2026

Analyse

The New York Yankees are currently playing some of their best baseball of the season. They have won eight of their last ten games and are riding a three game winning streak into this matchup. When you look at the offensive numbers, it is clear why they are such heavy favorites. New York ranks fourth in the league in scoring and they are putting up five point two runs per game. This is bad news for Chicago starter Sean Burke who carries a four point one five ERA. I know Ryan Weathers has been a bit of a disaster lately for the Yankees. His six point six five ERA over his recent starts is enough to make anyone nervous. But the White Sox defense is ranked nineteenth in the league and they give up plenty of opportunities. The Yankees have already shown they can handle this team, winning their previous matchup this year by a margin of six runs. My model puts the spread at minus two, which gives us a strong five point six percent edge on the current line of minus one point five. New York is scoring enough to cover for any mistakes Weathers makes on the mound. They are a top five offense facing a bottom half defense. The math is simple here. The Yankees should win this game by multiple runs and continue their hot streak at home.

À contre-courant du public

The public is looking at Ryan Weathers and his ugly recent ERA and thinking the White Sox can keep this close. They are wrong because they are ignoring the fact that the Yankees offense is a juggernaut that has already crushed Chicago once this year.

Analyse

This total is sitting at seven point five and that is frankly disrespectful to how poorly these defenses have played. The Baltimore Orioles have the twenty seventh ranked defense in the league. That is nearly the bottom of the barrel. While Shane Baz has been decent lately, the Mariners offense should be able to find plenty of holes. On the other side, Seattle is sending Bryan Woo to the mound. Woo has been struggling lately with a five point zero nine ERA in his recent starts. Baltimore is scoring four point seven runs per game and Seattle is adding four point two. If both teams just hit their season averages, we are already at nearly nine runs. My model is projecting a total of eight point three runs for this game. That creates a massive ten point six percent edge on the over. The Orioles offense is ranked ninth in the league and they should have no problem teeing off on Woo if he continues his current form. Seattle is a top five defensive unit, but Woo has been the weak link in the chain recently. The Mariners have gone five and five in their last ten games and their games have been unpredictable. But when you have a top ten offense in Baltimore facing a pitcher with a five plus ERA, you bet the over. This game has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair that cruises past the current line.

À contre-courant du public

Bettors see Shane Baz and his two point zero nine recent ERA and assume this will be a pitcher's duel. They are forgetting that the Baltimore defense behind him is a sieve and Bryan Woo is giving up runs in bunches lately.

Analyse

The Phillies are coming into this game as underdogs and that is a position we love to take with them. Aaron Nola is on the mound and while his five point eight six ERA looks terrifying, you have to look at who he is facing. The Mets offense is ranked twenty sixth in the league. They are not a team that consistently punishes pitchers, even ones who are struggling like Nola. Philadelphia has won six of their last ten games and they are currently on a two game winning streak. They are playing better baseball than the Mets right now. New York is sending Sean Manaea to the bump and while he has been solid recently, the Phillies offense is capable of putting up runs in bunches. My model actually has this game as a near toss up, projecting the spread at plus zero point six for Philadelphia. Getting one point five runs with a team that is playing better than their opponent is a gift. The Mets only score four runs per game on average and their defense is middle of the road. Philly has the eleventh ranked defense and should be able to limit the damage from a weak New York lineup. We are leaning on the Phillies to either win this game outright or keep it within a single run. The value on the plus one point five line is just too high to pass up given the offensive rankings of these two squads.

À contre-courant du public

The betting public is obsessed with Aaron Nola's high ERA and they are piling on the Mets. They are missing the fact that the Mets have one of the worst offenses in baseball and rarely cover as favorites.