AI MLB 플레이어 프롭

Vargas is averaging 1.3 total bases per game this season, but that number has fallen to 0.8 over his last five games. The matchup evidence is even worse, with a 0.0 average against this defensive tier compared with his 1.3 overall mark. His recent form and matchup adjustment both point below the 1.5 total base line.

Pasquantino's projection gives him only a 28.1% chance of scoring at least one run, down from his 0.44 season average after the matchup adjustment. Sonny Gray's 2.69 ERA lowers the run probability by about 23%, while Pasquantino is also slightly below his normal recent rate. The recent prop data shows an over in only 8 of 25 games.

Horwitz has averaged only 0.20 runs over his last five games, down from 0.40 for the season. Shota Imanaga's 3.91 ERA is below the league average of 4.15, and the matchup adjustment lowers Horwitz's scoring projection to a 27.8% chance of reaching at least one run. He has gone over this line in only 5 of his last 25 games.