NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, May 22, 2026

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Colorado comes in with a dominant 55 and 16 record while Vegas sits at 39 and 26. The model sees the Avalanche as a 64 percent favorite in this spot and gives them a lean on the moneyline. Colorado scores 3.6 goals per game and allows just 2.4, creating a clear offensive advantage. Vegas scores 3.2 and allows 3.0, so the numbers favor the home side across the board. The matchup breaks down nicely for Colorado too. Their offense ranks first against Vegas defense that sits thirteenth. Colorado defense ranks third overall and holds Vegas offense to thirteenth. Special teams show a wash with Colorado power play at 17.1 percent against Vegas penalty kill at 81.4 percent while Vegas power play hits 24.6 percent against Colorado penalty kill at 84.6 percent. Covering the spread looks tough for Colorado at home since they only cover 32 percent of the time. Vegas covers 56 percent on the road. The model spread sits at 1.4 and the line at 1.5 with a 0.4 percent edge on the pass. The 77 percent confidence level tells us the moneyline lean is the smarter route.

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The public tends to look at the spread and see Colorado as a lock to cover. But those home covering trends tell a different story and the model agrees. Vegas has been covering at a solid rate on the road and that keeps things close enough to avoid the spread.