NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds 2026-27: Harper Leads at +700

Dylan Harper is the favorite in the NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds for 2026-27 at +700, per BetMGM's board as of Sept. 29, a 12.5% implied probability. Ajay Mitchell sits right behind him at +800, and nobody else is shorter than Reed Sheppard at +1600.

There is no heavy minus-money favorite here, just two young guards on contenders priced almost level and a long, flat tail behind them. Last year's winner, Keldon Johnson, was a +6000 preseason long shot, per BetMGM, so the tail matters.

NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds 2026-27: The Board

BetMGM's odds feed, read Sept. 29, 2026:

| Player | Odds | Implied probability | |-|-|-| | Dylan Harper | +700 | 12.5% | | Ajay Mitchell | +800 | 11.1% | | Reed Sheppard | +1600 | 5.9% | | Anthony Black | +2000 | 4.8% | | Aaron Wiggins | +2500 | 3.8% | | Ace Bailey | +2500 | 3.8% | | Damian Lillard | +2500 | 3.8% | | Scoot Henderson | +2500 | 3.8% | | Bennedict Mathurin | +3000 | 3.2% | | Collin Sexton | +3000 | 3.2% | | Grayson Allen | +3000 | 3.2% | | Isaiah Joe | +3000 | 3.2% | | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | +3000 | 3.2% | | Jeremiah Fears | +3000 | 3.2% | | Keldon Johnson | +3000 | 3.2% |

Implied probability is 100 divided by (odds plus 100), so +700 works out to 100/800, or 12.5%. Per BetMGM's Sept. 23 column, +700 was also Harper's opening price.

FanDuel's prices, per TheLines on Sept. 16, matched for the eight names it listed: Harper +700, Mitchell +800, Sheppard +1600, Black +2000, then Wiggins, Bailey, Lillard and Henderson at +2500. That is not a line move, just two books pricing the top of the market the same way on different dates.

Who Counts as a Sixth Man

The eligibility rule shapes this whole market. For the 2025-26 award, per the NBA's official release, a player had to have come off the bench in more games than he started, and a global media panel of 100 voters selected the winner.

If that rule carries over, it is the hidden risk in every price on this board: a guard who plays his way into the starting five, or gets pushed there by an injury ahead of him, could play his way out of the award. TheLines made exactly that case against the two favorites, noting that either Harper or Mitchell could end up starting for a significant portion of the season.

Why Harper and Mitchell Sit on Top

Harper's case starts with San Antonio's depth. TheLines notes the Spurs are loaded at guard with De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle, which is part of why Harper spent most of his rookie season coming off the bench. He then averaged 18.0 points per game in the NBA Finals, per TheLines. Harper finished 11th in last season's Sixth Man voting with 2 points, per BetMGM's voting table.

Mitchell, who played for Oklahoma City last season, is the other side of the same bet. He averaged 13.6 points, 3.6 assists and 3.3 rebounds last season, per TheLines, and finished fifth in the 2025-26 voting with 29 points. BetMGM's Shane Thurston picked Mitchell to win.

Reed Sheppard (sixth in last year's voting, 28 points) is the only other name inside +2000.

The Voter Pattern: Winning Teams Win This

The 2025-26 result is the clearest template. Keldon Johnson averaged 13.2 points and 5.4 rebounds in 23.3 minutes as the league's only player to appear in all 82 games off the bench, per the NBA. He set a Spurs franchise record with 1,081 bench points and helped San Antonio to a 62-20 record, the league's second best. He joined Manu Ginobili (2007-08) as the only Spurs to win it.

Johnson took 404 voting points and 63 first-place votes. Miami's Jaime Jaquez Jr. was second with 331 points and 34 first-place votes, per BetMGM's table, despite posting two more points and 3.3 more assists per game than Johnson, per BetMGM. Jaquez played for a 43-win Heat team that did not get past the Play-In.

Per BetMGM's column, the last six winners all came from teams with at least 52 wins, including Payton Pritchard's 2024-25 win on a 61-win Celtics team and Naz Reid's 2023-24 win on a 56-win Timberwolves team. Bench scoring alone no longer carries a ballot.

Betting Angles and Value

At +700 and +800, Harper and Mitchell are priced as co-favorites, and the combined 23.6% implied probability is a fair read of two bench guards on contenders. The risk is not talent, it is role. If either one starts more games than he comes off the bench, the ticket is at risk if the 2025-26 eligibility rule carries over, regardless of production.

TheLines' pick is Anthony Black at +2000 (FanDuel, Sept. 16). He averaged career highs of 15.0 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists last season and started 40 games, largely because of injuries on Orlando's roster, per TheLines. The appeal is a lead second-unit role, but his start count is the thing to track given last season's eligibility rule.

The long tail is where last year's winner came from, at +6000. Johnson himself is at +3000 per BetMGM's Sept. 29 feed after a season in which he never started. Jaquez at +3000 was last season's runner-up, but Miami won 43 games, short of the 52-win bar the last six winners cleared.

For context on how the rest of the awards market is shaping up, StatSniper's NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds 2026-27 board shows how differently a locked-in favorite gets priced.

What to Watch Next

The first month of the 2026-27 season is the whole market. Watch starting lineups for Harper in San Antonio and for Mitchell, because a promotion for either changes this board faster than any box score. Track games started for Black in Orlando too.

The second signal is team record. With the last six winners all on teams with at least 52 wins per BetMGM, a slow start for a contender will push its bench candidate down the list. Check StatSniper's daily NBA picks once games tip, and the AI sports picks hub for the full nightly card.

Chad AI tracks NBA futures lines inside the StatSniper app, so you can watch this market settle without refreshing five sportsbooks.

FAQ

Who is favored in the NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds for 2026-27?

Dylan Harper of the Spurs is the favorite at +700 at BetMGM (Sept. 29) and at FanDuel (per TheLines, Sept. 16), a 12.5% implied probability. Ajay Mitchell is second at +800 on both boards.

Who won NBA Sixth Man of the Year in 2025-26?

Keldon Johnson of the Spurs. He averaged 13.2 points and 5.4 rebounds while playing all 82 games off the bench, per the NBA's official release. He was +6000 at BetMGM in the preseason.

Who is eligible for Sixth Man of the Year?

For 2025-26, per the NBA, a player had to come off the bench in more games than he started. If that rule carries over, a favorite who moves into the starting lineup can lose eligibility.

Who has won Sixth Man of the Year the most times?

Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams share the record with three wins each, per BetMGM.

Want a second opinion before you bet this market? Ask Chad, the StatSniper AI, to walk through the number with you.

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