NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds 2026: Jacob Rodriguez Now Favored

Jacob Rodriguez is +300 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sept. 30, 2026, per FOX Sports. The Dolphins linebacker, a second-round pick, has moved past David Bailey, the No. 2 overall pick who opened as the +450 favorite. Sonny Styles and Bailey are tied next at +600, which makes Rodriguez the clear name to beat in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds 2026 market after three weeks.

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds 2026: The Board

The table below is the DraftKings board from Sept. 30, per FOX Sports, with each price converted to a break-even probability. Teams are from ESPN. Draft slots are from ESPN for Rodriguez and Delane and from CBS Sports (May 6) for the other first-round picks.

| Player | Team | Pick | DraftKings, Sept. 30 (per FOX Sports) | Implied | |-|-|-|-|-| | Jacob Rodriguez | Dolphins | Rd 2, No. 43 | +300 | 25.0% | | Sonny Styles | Commanders | Rd 1, No. 7 | +600 | 14.3% | | David Bailey | Jets | Rd 1, No. 2 | +600 | 14.3% | | Arvell Reese | Giants | Rd 1, No. 5 | +1100 | 8.3% | | Caleb Downs | Cowboys | Rd 1, No. 11 | +1300 | 7.1% | | Hezekiah Masses | Raiders | n/a | +1300 | 7.1% | | Mansoor Delane | Chiefs | Rd 1, No. 6 | +1900 | 5.0% |

Two other dated reads point the same way. Kalshi priced Rodriguez at 24 percent on Sept. 28, ahead of Bailey at 17 percent and Reese and Styles at 11 percent each, per Covers. Pro Football Talk listed Rodriguez at +400 and Bailey at +450 on Sept. 29, without naming a book. Those are different markets on different days, so read each as its own snapshot.

How Far Rodriguez Has Moved

In May, DraftKings had Rodriguez at +2200, per CBS Sports, a price that implied about 4.3 percent. Bailey was the +450 favorite at the same book, followed by Rueben Bain Jr. at +550 and Reese at +650. Rodriguez went from outside the front tier to the top of the board in five months.

The college resume was always there. Per Pro Football Talk, Rodriguez was a unanimous All-American at Texas Tech, won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy and the Chuck Bednarik Award, and drew the most Heisman Trophy votes of any defensive player. CBS Sports put his final college season at 128 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, four interceptions and seven forced fumbles. He still fell to the Dolphins at No. 43 overall.

The Week 3 Game Behind the Move

Kansas City beat Miami 24-10 on Sept. 27, per ESPN, but Rodriguez still filled the stat sheet on the losing side. ESPN's box score credits him with six tackles (four solo), three tackles for loss, one pass defended and an 18-yard interception. Per Pro Football Talk, the pick came off Patrick Mahomes. Through three games he has 28 total tackles and one interception, per ESPN.

FOX Sports adds a historical angle: if Rodriguez wins, he would be the second straight Defensive Rookie of the Year taken outside the first round and just the fifth since 2000. Carson Schwesinger of the Browns, an off-ball linebacker, won the award last season, per CBS Sports and Covers.

The Chasers

Sonny Styles, Commanders (+600). Styles moved from +800 to +600 after Week 3, per FOX Sports. He had a sack in his debut against the Eagles, then added an interception and a forced fumble as Washington beat Seattle 33-31. ESPN has him at 12 tackles, one sack, one forced fumble and one interception.

David Bailey, Jets (+600). Bailey led Division I with 14.5 sacks at Texas Tech, per FOX Sports. He has two sacks and a forced fumble through three games, per ESPN, yet his price has drifted from +450.

Arvell Reese, Giants (+1100). Reese has 25 tackles, the second most on this board behind Rodriguez, but no sacks yet, per ESPN.

Caleb Downs, Cowboys (+1300). Downs has 21 tackles, a sack and three forced fumbles, per ESPN. The history is the hurdle: no safety has won the award since Mark Carrier in 1990, per CBS Sports and Covers.

Hezekiah Masses, Raiders (+1300). The cornerback has three interceptions and four passes defended, per ESPN. He shares the +1300 price with Caleb Downs.

Mansoor Delane, Chiefs (+1900). The No. 6 pick has one interception and two passes defended, per ESPN.

Betting Impact

At +300, Rodriguez needs better than a 25 percent chance to be worth a bet, and Kalshi's 24 percent read on Sept. 28 sits right at that line. The value has mostly been taken. His case is the volume path CBS Sports laid out in May: since 2010, the only off-ball linebackers to win were Schwesinger, Shaquille Leonard and Luke Kuechly, which means the bar is high tackle totals plus turnovers.

The more interesting number is Bailey at +600 against his own production. Edge defenders won the award five of the previous seven years, per CBS Sports.

Masses at +1300 is the price to watch in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds. He already has three interceptions in three games, per ESPN. For weekly sides and props rather than a season-long hold, the model board on our AI sports picks hub and the NFL daily picks page update every slate, and you can run any futures price past Chad.

What to Watch Next

Week 4 opens tonight, Thursday, Oct. 1, with Pittsburgh at Cleveland, per ESPN. The Sunday, Oct. 4, slate carries most of this board:

Colts vs. Commanders in London, 9:30 a.m. ET (Styles)

Jets at Bears, 1 p.m. ET (Bailey)

Cardinals at Giants, 1 p.m. ET (Reese)

Cowboys at Texans, 1 p.m. ET (Downs)

Dolphins at Vikings, 4:05 p.m. ET (Rodriguez)

Chiefs at Raiders, 4:25 p.m. ET (Masses and Delane in the same game)

Rodriguez's season numbers are tracked on his ESPN player page. For another award market, read our NFL Coach of the Year odds 2026 breakdown. Chad AI tracks every NFL futures board and weekly line inside the StatSniper app.

FAQ

Who is the favorite for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2026? Jacob Rodriguez of the Dolphins, at +300 at DraftKings as of Sept. 30, per FOX Sports. He also led Kalshi at 24 percent on Sept. 28, per Covers.

What were David Bailey's preseason Defensive Rookie of the Year odds? Bailey was the +450 favorite at DraftKings in May, per CBS Sports. He was +600 as of Sept. 30, tied with Sonny Styles, per FOX Sports.

Who won Defensive Rookie of the Year last season? Carson Schwesinger, an off-ball linebacker with the Browns, per CBS Sports and Covers.

Has a safety won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year recently? No. The last safety to win was Mark Carrier in 1990, per CBS Sports and Covers, which is the trend Caleb Downs is up against at +1300.

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