Valspar Championship 2026: Sungjae Im Leads Into Final Round — Betting Angles and DFS Picks

Im at the Wheel, Koepka in the Mirror — Valspar Final Round Preview

Sungjae Im carries a one-shot lead into Sunday's final round of the 2026 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. At 9-under par through 36 holes, Im has been the steadiest ball-striker on the Copperhead Course all week — but the leaderboard entering the final round has enough firepower to make the back nine genuinely unpredictable.

David Lipsky sits one back at 8-under after posting a second-round 65. Doug Ghim and Chandler Blanchet are two shots off the pace at 7-under. Matt Fitzpatrick, Marco Penge, and Brandt Snedeker are within range at 5-under. And Brooks Koepka — the detail that makes this final round appointment television — is lurking in the field.

Sungjae Im's Case for the Win

Im shot a 7-under 64 in the opening round to seize early control, then managed the course effectively on Friday to maintain the margin. His game is built for the Copperhead — precise iron play, consistent fairways, and a short game that handles the undulating Innisbrook greens better than most.

The Copperhead Course plays firm and fast in Florida's late-March conditions. It rewards patience over aggression, and Im's style aligns with that: he doesn't force birdies, he lets them come from good position plays. His strokes gained on approach have been the best in the field through two rounds, and that metric typically holds up through a tournament's final stages.

Where Im can be beaten is on the conversion rate. His historical track record when holding 54-hole leads is below the Tour average — not dramatically so, but enough that the market shouldn't price him as heavily as a dominant front-runner. He's the right pick to win, but not at any price.

Why Koepka Changes the Calculus

Brooks Koepka being in contention at a Florida venue, on a demanding course with significant field pressure — that's a script Koepka was written for. His major championship experience doesn't just exist in the four weeks per year when majors are played. It manifests in Sunday back-nine situations where the pressure is maximum and the field begins to flinch.

His Sunday scoring average at Florida Tour stops is elite. His length and power are well-suited to Innisbrook's par-fives, and his putting on Poa annua-adjacent surfaces has been sharp this season. If Koepka is sitting within two shots of Im entering Sunday — which the third-round results will confirm — he needs to be on your shortlist regardless of his odds.

The market tends to underprice Koepka in non-major Tour events because casual bettors anchor to his major reputation without realizing it applies in exactly these high-pressure, leaderboard scenarios at any level.

David Lipsky: The Sharpest Angle on the Board

Lipsky at 8-under is the most interesting number on the leaderboard. His second-round 65 was technically sound — driving accuracy, controlled iron distances, minimal dropped shots. He's not a name that drives recreational betting action, which means he'll be priced generously in both the outright market and the each-way books.

At +500 or better for an outright win, Lipsky is worth a unit. Each-way at similar odds — covering a top-5 finish — is the smarter risk-adjusted play. He's close enough to Im to win with a 65-67, and the Copperhead's back nine is exactly the kind of finish where the lead can compress rapidly if Im plays defensively.

Betting Framework for Sunday

Sungjae Im to win: Market will likely open Im at -140 to -175 depending on his third-round result. That's fair pricing for a one-shot leader on a demanding course. Not heavy value, but defensible as the top of a bet structure. If he extends the lead to two or three shots through R3, the odds shorten and the value largely disappears.

David Lipsky outright/each-way: The clearest edge on the board. Pricing him at +500 or better for the win and each-way provides the leverage the top of the board doesn't. If Lipsky shoots 64-65 on Sunday, the payout relative to Im-heavy tickets is significant.

Brooks Koepka to win: Position-dependent. Within two shots, Koepka at +700 to +900 is a serious bet. Outside three shots, the mountain gets steep even for him. Check his R3 position before committing.

Field vs. Im matchup bets: Some books will offer head-to-head pairings for the final round. Lipsky vs. Im is the pairing worth examining — if Lipsky is offered at +money against Im in a pairing bet, that's a clear value play given the proximity and course conditions.

DFS Construction for the Final Round

Final-round golf DFS is fundamentally about identifying who shoots low, not who holds on. Targets:

Im is a necessary exposure at his salary level but carries chalk risk — he'll be highly owned given his position. If your lineup structure needs a differentiator, use him as a base but find leverage elsewhere.

Lipsky is the tournament's optimal leverage play. High enough on the leaderboard to win or finish top-5, low enough in projected ownership to separate lineups that cash. His floor on Sunday — with a realistic path to 66-67 — is strong.

Koepka provides the scenario correlation that tournament DFS requires. Low ownership, major-pedigree upside, and a proven Sunday back-nine closing ability. He's the kind of play that either wins you a tournament or doesn't matter — which is exactly what you need for large-field DFS formats.

Matt Fitzpatrick and Marco Penge are both at 5-under and represent deeper-field exposure for multi-lineup construction. Fitzpatrick in particular has the iron game to climb the board in a single round on courses like this.

The Copperhead Back Nine: Where Leads Die

The 16th, 17th, and 18th holes at Innisbrook are where the Valspar gets decided. The Copperhead's closing stretch demands accuracy under pressure — exactly the conditions that differentiate the major-ready players from those who fold on Sunday afternoons.

Im's composure has been good this week, but he hasn't been in this position under playoff-level pressure. Koepka, Lipsky, and Fitzpatrick all have Tour wins or near-wins in their recent histories. The final four holes will answer the question.

Sunday's round begins in the late morning Florida time. The leaderboard is live.

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