NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, April 12, 2026

Analysis

New Jersey hosts Ottawa in a matchup where the model sees a total of just 5 goals against that lofty 6.5 line. That's a whopping 22.6% edge. Devils sit at 40-36, banged up bad with Jacob Markstrom out in net, Luke Hughes sidelined on defense, and Brett Pesce also missing. Their blue line is thin. Ottawa rolls in at 43-27 on a four-game win streak, but they're without Dennis Gilbert and Tyler Kleven on the back end too. Both teams lean defense-first lately. Devils allow 2.8 goals per game at home without their top guys. Senators score 3.1 on the road but face a rested New Jersey squad that's desperate. Model projects low event total. Ottawa's streak is nice, but it's against weaker defenses. Here, expect structure. Goaltending steps up. Under hits 7 of 10 similar spots. Public chases the streak. Fade it. This stays under 6.5 easy.

Public Fade

Everyone sees Ottawa's W4 and piles on the over, thinking goals galore. But injuries gut both defenses, and neither pushes pace. Model laughs at the 6.5.

Analysis

Calgary welcomes Utah, but model loves the visitors covering -1.5 with a projected +2.3 margin. Edge at 5.3%. Flames are 32-37, missing Kevin Bahl and Joel Hanley on D. Utah's 42-30 on a scorching five-win streak, though John Marino, Jack McBain, and Barrett Hayton are out. Total models at 4.6 versus 5.5 line. Another under lock with 16.3% edge. Utah dominates possession, outshooting foes 32-28 per game lately. Calgary's home defense leaks 3.4 goals without depth pieces. Mammoth score 3.2 on road tears like this. Flames struggle to finish. Double down on under 5.5 too, but puck line pays better. Utah wins by two or more in 6 of 10 streak games. Calgary can't hang.

Public Fade

Bettors love home dogs like Flames, ignoring Utah's streak and superior underlying metrics. Public fades road favorites. Model says they cover easy.

Analysis

Anaheim hosts Vancouver. Ducks 42-32, Canucks a dismal 22-48. But model gives Vancouver 60.1% win probability. That's 15.2% edge on the +245 dog. Under 6.5 also tempts at 15.1% with model total 5.5. Vancouver missing Evander Kane and Jonathan Lekkerimäki, but Anaheim's without Jansen Harkins and Ross Johnston. Canucks desperate, fighting for pride. Ducks rest key guys maybe, coasting. Model sees Vancouver outchancing Anaheim 29-25 shots. Vancouver's 3-7 last 10, but against playoff teams. Anaheim leaky at home, allowing 3.5 goals. Canucks score enough in spots like this. ML hits. Plus under if parlaying.

Public Fade

Public hammers Ducks as home favorites versus the league's worst. Records blind them to model's projection and Anaheim's soft schedule. Vancouver steals this.