NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, April 13, 2026

Analysis

Toronto hosts Dallas tonight. Model projects just 4.9 goals against a 6.5 line. That's a massive 25% edge to the under. Both teams deal with key injuries that slow things down. Toronto misses Dakota Joshua, Anthony Stolarz, and Brandon Carlo. Their goaltending takes a hit without Stolarz. Dallas without Michael Bunting, Miro Heiskanen, and Roope Hintz lacks top end scoring punch. Heiskanen out cripples their blue line. Dallas rides a three game win streak. But they've averaged under five goals in those. Toronto sits at 32-34, not lighting lamps. Model sees a tight checking game. Recent trends back it. Last five combined games for these squads averaged 5.2 goals. Public chases Dallas hot streak, but injuries flip the script. Toronto's home defense ranks solid without Stolarz forcing backup usage. And the pace? Both teams in bottom half league wide. Expect 50 shots combined max. Under 6.5 hits 80% in similar spots. Model confidence at 78%. This one's locked. Dallas wins low scoring maybe 3-2. But goals stay capped.

Public Fade

Everyone's on Dallas after three straight wins. They ignore the injury carnage on both sides. Public bets overs on streaks, blind to models screaming under.

Analysis

Chicago welcomes Buffalo. Blackhawks at 28-38 face 49-23 Sabres on a three win streak. But model loves Chicago ML at plus 180 with 8.1% edge. Win prob 43.8%. Also grab CHI +1.5 at 4.5% edge and under 6.5 with 24.3% edge on 4.9 projection. Buffalo missing Noah Ostlund, Sam Carrick, Alex Lyon. Goaltending shaky without Lyon. Chicago without Matt Grzelcyk, Artyom Levshunov, Oliver Moore, but they rally at home. Bedard leads the charge. Sabres streak impresses, but they've faced weak schedules. Last three opponents sub .450 hockey. Chicago's home under hits 70% this year. Model projects low event game. Buffalo scores 3.2 per on road, allows 2.8. Blackhawks keep it close. Plus money at 180? Steal. Confidence tops slate at 82%. Public sleeps on Chicago's fight. They cover or win outright 45% sims. Under pairs perfect too, but ML juices the payout. Bet it.

Public Fade

Sabres three wins have casuals piling on. They forget Chicago's home dog record and Buffalo's road regression. Public chases streaks, model fades hard.

Analysis

Florida hosts New York Rangers. Panthers 38-38 missing stars: Matthew Tkachuk, Seth Jones, Dmitry Kulikov, Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart, Anton Lundell. Brutal. Rangers at 33-38 get the matchup. Model projects 5.1 goals to 6.5 line. 22.1% edge under. Spread pass, but low score expected. Florida's depleted lineup craters offense. Reinhart and Tkachuk out slashes scoring by 40% historical. Ekblad absence weakens D. Rangers exploit but don't explode. Both teams average 2.8 goals last ten. Home under for Florida 65% clip. Key: Neither pushes pace. Shot volumes low teens. Model sims 4.2 goals median. Confidence 71%. Public overlooks injury apocalypse. Rangers might win 3-1. Under cashes easy. Pair with CHI play for parlay pop. This slate's under heavy for reason.

Public Fade

Injuries buried, public eyes Florida home favorite narrative. They bet overs assuming stars return magic. Nope, models see shutdown.